subject: Understanding Weather Forecasting [print this page] The climate of a destination greatly impacts its tourist industry. While travelling, we usually check the seasonal changes of the destination and plan accordingly. However, often, we are caught offguard with sudden, unexpected changes in the weather. For example, if you plan to travel to Leeds for a conference then prepare to take warm clothes for the winter. However, Leeds weather may surprise you with sudden unexpected showers. Thus, the need for weather forecasting arises.
Minor differences in the initial conditions of the atmosphere eventually lead to major changes in the weather that show up in a few days. However, day-to-day weather can be predicted for only about two weeks. Radio, television and internet are the key media wherein one can regularly check for local weather forecasts published by the meteorology department of a country.
Basics of Forecasting
Weather depends on minor changes in the atmosphere. As technology evolves, high-tech computers have taken over the forecasting procedure. Meteorologists keenly observe global as well as local weather forecasts, and feed the same into the automated computer processes that use various meteorological theories and mathematical models to predict the weather.
Types of Forecasts
Short-Range Forecasts: Up to 48 hours
These kinds of forecasts are used mainly by people on the move, to understand the exact situation of the weather, while trying to plan their work schedules. It mainly contains predictions about rain or snow along with temperatures during the day and night. While all the elements of weather are provided in short-range forecasts, people tend to usually focus on the basic elements. It is known to be around 70-80% accurate.
Extended Forecasts: Up to 5 days
New York, Paris and London weather forecasts are presented in this manner. These popular forecasts show a gradual or sudden change in the weather along with dry or wet spells. It is ideal for people who wish to gauge suitability - for work or leisure. It is known to be about 60-70% accurate.
Long-Range Forecasts: 30 days or a whole season
They show long-term abnormalities in the weather along with a cold or hot spell, rainfall and even snowfall. Since weather changes are minor and gradual, long-range forecasts are not entirely reliable. Their accuracy, however, is known to be around 60%. With this brief on the nuances of weather, you can be better informed the next time you open the newspaper or log on to a website to check the local weather forecast of your favorite travel destination.
