subject: Enhancing Accuracy In Long-range Weather Forecasts [print this page] What is Weather Forecasting? What is Weather Forecasting?
Weather forecasting as a science involves the prediction of the atmospheric condition of a given location within a given frame of time. It is typically done by acquiring quantitative information on the present state of climate at the location and analyzing the data to predict how the atmosphere is expected to evolve over a period of time. For example, specialists can predict the 7-day weather forecast in London by analyzing the nature of its climate today.
What are the Typical Ranges in Weather Forecasting?
There are varied types of forecast ranges that are employed to ensure utmost accuracy in climate predictions:
? Short-range forecasts are typically for a period of up to 48 hours. These are considered the most accurate.
? Extended forecasts make predictions ranging from 3 to 5 days.
? Medium-range ones provides information on 3- to 7-day weather forecasts.
? Long-range weather forecasts are for a period that goes beyond 7 days.
Challenges in Long-Range Weather Forecasting
In spite of the upward movement in forecasting technologies, there are still some limitations that hold back specialists from gaining absolute accuracy in long-range weather forecasts.Considering the complex and dynamic nature of weather forecasting, it is assumed that the longer the time range, the more difficult it is to make accurate predictions. It is difficult to give exact information on rain and snow, simply because there are multiple factors that impact the Earths atmosphere, which consequently affects the weather at any given location.
Thus, the predicted weather in London for today or tomorrow is deemed to be much more reliable than the forecasts made on the weather a week from today. It is further believed that the accuracy level of forecasting is compromised tremendously on the 10-day mark. It is considerably easier to derive at accurate forecasts if the atmospheric patterns are relatively consistent. This is possible only within shorter time frames, in which the climate is likely to evolve gradually.
Enhancing Forecasts
There is no denying that long-range weather forecasting technologies have positively evolved over the past couple of decades. Today, a 10-day weather forecast of London is definitely more accurate than a 5-day prediction from 10 years ago.
Researchers are making significant progress in the area of long-term weather predictability. They are taking efforts to effectively track climatic uncertainties and promoting the development of forecasting skills among specialists for the benefit of more accurate long-range weather information.
