subject: Atmosphere Of The Soybean Market Weakening [print this page] Last week CBOT soybean (information, quotes) futures market plunged Friday 940-950 cents below the critical platform. Mainly because the U.S. Midwest soybean growing area weather is conducive to the growth of the private sector in different U.S. soybean production this year is expected to record pressure and other negative, while the crude oil market and continued weakness in CBOT soybean Soybean down also weaker. Technically, the major contract in November fell below pre-shock low key support range of 940-950 cents, out of the five-Lian Yin, showing obvious Ruoshi, 900 cents ahead towards the next target.
Current U.S. soybean market is shrouded in the 09/10 year to reach a record high of negative suppression of the scale into, and this role will be to suppress the role of the disk over a longer period. Currently around Financial Market also in a relatively chaotic pattern among the agricultural products (000,061, stock it) futures provide sufficient support. Therefore, we believe that the U.S. soybean prices in September before the monthly supply and demand report, will maintain the overall pattern of weak downward.
Funding level, according to CFTC announced until September 1 CBOT soybean futures options the week's position report shows a substantial fund holdings in soy products, a single 11 019 empty hand. Last month, speculative funds Beans Attitude varieties are to reduce by more than the main tone air, revealed a large extent determined its agricultural products are more bearish.
But one thing needs to be noted that although agricultural futures prices last week showed a larger overall decline, the total futures positions, but there was a certain division, the U.S. corn (information market), wheat (Information, Quotes ) The total open interest futures fell more obvious, but the total U.S. soybean positions but showed slow growth. Post should continue to focus on the U.S. soybean gross position changes, if the gross position will continue to increase, indicating a certain undertaking the bottom plate, the bottom of the space may be some inhibition, the decline appears to stabilize once the signs of a rebound will also be with the the more urgent.
Signs of weakness within the disk Soybean fell sharply early last week
, mainly due to contraction of domestic credit is expected to lead to domestic futures varieties and domestic A shares sharply sell into corrections. Last week, greater volatility in the macroeconomic side, the scale contraction of credit in China in August, is expected to tight liquidity, China's stock market leading decliners led global stock markets and international commodity. Soybean main contract in May 3600 fall of the checkpoints has been short-term technical support level of concern around 3560. But Friday the decrease in U.S. soybean Powei trends, Soybean losses not only do not rule out the support test for 3450-3500, suggest that investors thought the next week, mainly to bearish.
With soybean meal (information, quotes) futures shot up after the delay along with neighboring markets and weakness, weakness in the corresponding set by the U.S. after the decline in domestic soybean meal market is accelerating the trend of prices continue downward to find support center. Multi-week meal taken the initiative to lighten up that continuing weakness of prices, the total reduction of 141,000 positions substantially hand, the early stage of price falls below a low, there is still room below. Double the stocking oil market is demand not give the spot markets pick up, turbulence is expected to remain weak futures market potential, even Bean oil (Information, quotes) technically support 7000 integer crossing, in the current atmosphere of relatively bad agricultural market environment, the more likely fall below 7000, the proposed amount of additional short can.
