subject: Domestic Soybean Meal Market Conditions Are Expected Limited Downside [print this page] Lately, domestic soybean meal spot foreign disk and end markets continued to fall sharply under the pressure of waiting to see continued lower atmosphere, from the current view of the domestic market, the market pressure on the North than the South in general to the market, sale and export of a large number of factories making parts of the South inventory pressures eased significantly, while the northern market is also facing a storage reservoir is the pressure of soybean, but Bean oil Market weak, end up facing the library market, high cost of imported soybean and CBOT soybean support may still launch a summer offensive to analyze such factors. Situation as follows:
Continued weakness in domestic soybean oil market, high cost to Hong Kong will continue to support soybean meal price
With summer approaching, the domestic spot market for palm oil, soybean oil blending proportion of the increase in consumption will gradually enter the off-season, since early June, the domestic soybean oil prices decline to 4 400-500 yuan / ton; It is reported that the current Dealers face a certain number of soybean oil Sell Pressure. So from a cost and profit level, the post-oil plant is still the possibility of very large meal. Although the current CBOT soybean sharply lower on continued, but at the current price to calculate the disk beans, soybeans in Brazil in July shipment to Hong Kong duty-paid cost price of 4040 yuan / ton, according to 7250-7450 yuan / ton in four soybean oil price projections , the forward price of soybean meal costs about 3530-3580 yuan / ton, and the current plants offer the majority of the cost price has dropped to the range, which means that costs continue to uplift the context of soybean meal spot prices continue to drop the space has been limited . In addition, some areas Feed Company inventory levels maintained at more than 10 days or so, and from early June since the sidelines in the majority in the delisting, which traders generally expect the market in recent days the market will end up library.
Market supply pressure was significantly greater than the North South Market, a soybean storage reservoir is still concerned about the price and quantity
News feedback from the market point of view, at this stage the pressure on the domestic market in the north than the south to clear the market, which is both re-market price difference to 100-200 yuan / ton of reason. Southern coastal part of the large factories, 5 mid-late round rally, the number of large pre-meal, the current basic and more in the implementation of pre-contract, of which non-implementation of the contract factories in east China more than 2-3 million tons, Shandong plant did not carry out the contract rate is about 1-2 million tons, individual manufacturers have not learned the amount of the contract can have more than 100 thousand tons; coupled with coastal areas in recent months, an average of 20-30 per month tons of soybean meal exports volume, part of the factory's stock has significantly eased the pressure, so soybean prices down again, the possibility of adjustment is limited. Also out of the reservoir is soybean price and quantity of storage is still concern by the northern market, the current rumors that the State would allow some plants to process the way through the process.
CBOT soybean prices plunged by the external negative effects, post-market will still be speculation against fundamentals
This week CBOT soybean prices plummeted, down sharply for a second day, on the external market price of crude oil fell to negative stock market and the impact of a stronger dollar also makes commodities generally under pressure, the U.S. site long positions which continue to increase soybean promoting soybean prices fell sharply, showing weakness in the external market on the price of beans has brought to the United States strongly bearish atmosphere. Old for the U.S. soybean supply is currently supporting the U.S. price of the main driving force of beans, but the recent slowdown in China's purchases, the last two U.S. weekly soybean export this year net sales are all negative, weakening export demand on the market supporting role, and as New bean seed to a close, the market began to gradually shift the focus of speculation; but in the new grain market, the international soybean market for U.S. soybean stocks Chen tensions and the growth of the new beans will still uncertain speculation pushed up soybean prices.
