subject: August domestic cold and hot rolled coil market movements in September forecast - cold hot rolled coil, the market - steel industry [print this page] Since mid-August, domestic steel prices after almost 3 months of steady rises, there has been rapid downward trend. One, in August to run hot and cold coils market conditions 1, market trends As of August 24, 3.0mm in major cities nationwide average price of hot rolled 3953 yuan / ton, last month fell 119 yuan / ton, 3.0mm hot rolled high, low, respectively, Changsha, Wuhan, , Kunming and Xian 4100 yuan / ton, and Tianjin, Beijing and Chengdu, 3,800 yuan / ton; 4.75mm in major cities nationwide average price of hot rolled yuan / ton, 4,035 yuan / ton, last month was up 56 yuan / ton, 4.75mm hot the highest volume, lowest prices in Changsha 4250 yuan / ton and Shanghai, 3,920 yuan / ton. National 1.0mm Cold plate The average price in 5136 yuan volume / ton, equivalent to the previous month end, 1.0mm cold-rolled sheet high, low Harbin market were 5,500 yuan / ton and 4,750 yuan Urumqi market / ton. Figure: National hot-rolled sheet price chart: cold-rolled sheet prices nationwide Recent cold hot rolled coil prices were mainly the following reasons: First, the price rose too fast early, the cash market more profitable resources, subject to "be secured" psychological the impact of price cuts shipping operators have strong will; 2 is affected by the impact of national economic policy fine-tuning, stock and futures markets a correction, e-plate steel prices fall, driving down the spot market price of panic. 2, resource supply Latest statistics show that in July China's hot rolled coil production reached 10.298 million tons, up 10.1% year on year, average daily output of 332,000 tons, growth of 0.3%; cold rolled coils production of 3.464 million tons, up 21.5%, average daily output of 112,000 tons, growth of 6.5%, production of cold rolled coils are historical highs. If after a few months to continue to increase steel production, which will cool hot rolled coil market during the year to bring greater pressure. 3, import and export 1-7 months, the national total export 11.16 million tons of steel, down 22.98 million tons, the country imported a total of 9.88 million tons of steel, rose 1.92% year on year. Among them, the hot-rolled sheet from January to July total exports of 90,000 tons, 86.7% lower, total imports of 180,000 tons, up 61.8%; cold-rolled sheet 1-7 aggregate export 80 thousand tons, decreased 69.2%, total imports of 280,000 tons , 19.3% lower. 4, stock market As of August 24, major cities in hot rolled coil stock 3.083 million tons, up 240,000 tons on a monthly basis. Major cities were 1.156 million tons cold-rolled stock, on a monthly increase of 53,000 tons, respectively. Figure: hot rolled stock in major cities nationwide chart: cold rolled sheet stock in major cities nationwide trend 9 cold rolled coils running the market trend forecast For the market outlook, the cold rolled coils remains the foundation up, mainly in the following factors: The first is from the demand perspective. Countries to achieve the GDP "Paul 8" goal in the second half will continue to maintain huge government investment policies and moderately easy monetary policy, fixed asset investment accelerated, the real estate industry to flourish and begin to resume production of the manufacturing sector, will Hot-rolled coil Demand has picked up. Followed from a cost perspective. Iron ore Ocean freight soaring, leading to Iron ore price With the rise, greatly increasing the cost of steel production. To Brazil to China's sea freight, for example, last year, per ton of iron ore sea freight is also only 8.85 U.S. dollars / ton, and now has risen to 45.6 U.S. dollars / ton, up 5 times. Followed from the steel mill perspective. Current steel prices down, Baosteel, Wuhan Iron and Steel, Maanshan Steel, sand and other large steel against steel, "City" raised ex-factory price, trying to improve the ex-factory price to stabilize the rapid decline of the steel. Baosteel announced on August 11 in September the second batch of ex-factory price, cold Hot Rolled Coil Board price increase in the maximum rate of 600 yuan / ton. Wuhan Iron and Steel Price Policy in September, will be cold rolled coil prices were up by 800 yuan / ton. Finally inventory perspective. Hot-rolled coil prices are rising traders reluctant sellers, leading to enhanced state of mind, out of inflation expectations, traders store goods to be up, the market volume has not increased significantly, a considerable number of sales in the circulation between dealers, and even not the storage step. Currently, most pre-low-cost resources, inventory, cost, mostly in the 3900 yuan / ton, far below the prevailing market price. Dealer inventory now profitable, some merchants began to recover a rational state of mind, began selling a small price reduction. Arrived in August of resources, the increase in inventories. Steel from the current point of view, than hot-rolled coil Rebar Slightly lower, the price is not high, businesses have greater flexibility. Sum up, in August of cold rolled coil price spikes callback into shock consolidation period is rapidly drawing up preliminary amendments are technical adjustments. The current market outlook continues to maintain a good macroeconomic fundamentals have not changed. This round of price increases pushed up the cost, to a certain extent, the formation of the support steel prices, coupled with rising raw material prices, but also raise the cost of production, so hot-rolled coil prices limited extent. At present, cold rolled coil prices are still far away from the high of last year, after the recent adjustments have further room to rise, expected to usher in the first 9 months late will rise.
August domestic cold and hot rolled coil market movements in September forecast - cold hot rolled coil, the market - steel industry
