subject: Devaluation Of The Renminbi: Toy Export Short [print this page] Since December 1 consecutive three-day session down limit of the yuan against the dollar early in the 4th hit limit-down position. The China Foreign Exchange Trade Center announced on the 4th U.S. dollar against the yuan central parity set at 6.8502 yuan, and ended flat. Analysts believe the central parity of RMB exchange rate stable out, this may imply that the central bank hoped that the RMB exchange rate remained stable.
For the yuan is not already set foot on the depreciation of the channel U-turn? Most analysts have pointed out that the short-term depreciation of the RMB is rational. Bank of Communications (601 328 quotes, love stocks, the major trends) with Ping, chief economist, said China's economic growth rate remains highest in the world foreign exchange reserves and trade surplus are also at a high level, from the fundamental point of view, the renminbi in the short term Although a certain degree of depreciation, but depreciation is not too strong the yuan is still based on long-term momentum is still appreciated.
International financial experts, the Bank of China researcher Wang Yuanlong also said it is hard to say devaluation of the RMB into this cycle, after all, the overall development trend of China's economy in the current international environment is relatively fairly good, two or three days alone depreciation trend of market volatility on the formation of some arbitrary assertion.
Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Institute of World Economics and Politics of International Finance Research Center, said Dr. Zhang Bin, deputy director, this is more a central bank is expected to adapt to market changes and make adjustments, the central bank to do the purpose and In order to take advantage of the exchange rate is not a means to stimulate exports, it is mainly to increase the flexibility of RMB exchange rate change to the original lasted for many years a unilateral exchange rate of RMB appreciation expectations.
"I do not think that the depreciation of the RMB into the channel." China's foreign exchange supply and demand, continued oversupply in the past many years, so that the RMB appreciation expectations. So far our foreseeable future, or oversupply of foreign exchange supply and demand fundamentals, in this case into a continued depreciation of the channel, and this is completely contrary to the fundamentals.
As for the effect of devaluation on China's economy, he believes that both short-term rates rose Ye Hao, derogatory Ye Hao, not exports, to the great impact the real economy, but the main effect is the central bank In establishing the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism and efforts to try to do. He said: "can not say that because the yuan rose by a few per thousand, and then I export has increased dramatically, it is more of a signal, but I hope the market will not misread these signals, do not think the RMB into a unilateral devaluation of the trend continuing. "He said the yuan is now entering a cycle of greater volatility, it is definitely not the depreciation of the cycle.
For "If the continued depreciation of the renminbi, export companies will benefit because prices are more competitive," this is too optimistic view of feedback from the interview point of view, home appliance, textile and other export large general agreement that affect the export of critical current not the exchange rate, but weakness in external demand market.
Toy manufacturer in Dongguan, a responsible person also said that the main problem now is that Europe and the United States orders are dwindling, supply is the crux of the problem. "However, the depreciation of our psychological effects are still there, at least, orders will not be too tight in the exchange rate losses."
Guangzhou Light Holdings Sino Import & Export Company mainly responsible for Xu Wenkai Toy Exports Business, he said: "The State may allow continued devaluation of the RMB 2-3 months, but most will be 5-6 percent devaluation." He believes that the export has been declining this year, the attitude of the government bailout has been more specific, this times depreciation should be a proactive behavior.
However, the effect will not be immediate. "Now comes the Christmas season though, but usually in September toy had a complete basic goods will be shipped two weeks after the settlement, so we do not benefit significantly." Xuwen Kai said the devaluation of the RMB if extended to the Spring Fair enough.
