subject: August Domestic Construction Steel Market Trends, And In September Forecast [print this page] Entered in August, the domestic construction steel market rapidly moving shock wave, price inflation fall. As of Aug. 24, 20mm Rebar The average price of 3933 yuan / ton, down 105 yuan from the previous month / ton. 20mm rebar high, low 4,320 yuan respectively, Taiyuan / ton and Shenyang 3750 yuan / ton; 6.5mm High Line The average price of 3882 yuan / ton, down 146 yuan from the previous month / ton. 6.5mm high-wire high, low 4,150 yuan respectively, Kunming / ton and Tianjin 3650 yuan / ton,
Figure: National rebar prices continue to fall (0701-090824)
Figure: National Cable prices continue to fall (0701-090824)
1, construction steel market, the reasons for the rapid analysis of volatile activity
This wave of steel price changes, there is caused by many factors. First of all, is the protracted international Iron ore price Negotiations, nothing ever resulted Iron ore Market prices continued to rise, plus Shanghai rising freight, steel and iron ore prices are expected to call on businesses to promote the other steel raw materials, such as pig iron, coke, scrap, ferroalloy and so prices are rising, the cost of steel production climbing, raise steel prices led steel, which is caused pre-thread steel, wire and rapidly rising prices is an important reason.
Secondly, a lot of money invested, the expected excess liquid funds. Pick up the domestic economic situation in recent months, mainly to expand the scale of national investment, such as in June surged to 1.53 trillion yuan of credit, credit this year's third-largest peak months. First half of the new credit up to 7.37 trillion yuan, more than any year since the founding of New China, the credit amount. With the steady rise of the economy and the future economic prospects, many banks put in efforts to increase loans. Undoubtedly 7.37 trillion yuan loans will help boost economic recovery and confidence, and expand domestic demand, growth logs to a pay rise. Items should be said that this is indeed a certain extent, driven the demand for steel, especially steel, wire and other construction steel, which is to promote early rapid rising domestic steel prices as a reason not to be ignored.
Again, steel, steel futures trading to participate in the increase of steel futures trading, stock trading interaction, the embodiment of hedge function is to promote this wave of rising steel prices a major reason. Since the launch of steel futures in March this year, since some domestic steel mills and steel traders involved in futures trading is gradually increased, a group of funds into steel futures trading on some steel trade to do business not only spot trading, but also engage in futures trading , is now involved in steel futures in order to maintain the delivery, it is bound to continue in the short term to reduce the number put in the market, while increasing prices, further pushing up prices. The aerial cover, but also to accelerate the increase in steel prices. In addition, operation of plant library futures delivery, rebar futures first batch of registered warehouse receipts generated, and so on, steel futures market hedging function is realized.
The overlapping effect of these factors appear to directly lead to early August of this round of rapid increases in steel prices. In late August, overall volatility of steel prices down, especially under the wave of rapid construction steel prices, the most fundamental reason is that market demand is. Recently, the Shanghai continuous period of 20 days of rain, heavy rain, heavy rain, typhoon, continuous; Similarly, in other parts of China have encountered high temperatures, heavy rain, floods, typhoons and other effects, a lot of construction work stoppage on significantly reduced steel demand.
2, affect the market price of steel construction in September of factors
1, resource supply Single month this year, crude steel output reaching new heights in July steel production for the first time exceed 5 million tons to 50.68 million tons history. Among them, the Rebar production increased by 33.2%, wire rod production increased by 21.6%. Many steel mills are operating at full capacity producing construction steel, home to steel mills, the original production of quality steel to transform the production line, for the production of normal steel, rolled rebar. Capacity of small and medium steel blind release is expected to 9,10 month, the construction steel market will be significantly increased resources.
2, stock market As of August 24, the National Stock 3.922 million tons Rebar major cities, up 680,000 tons from last month; major cities wire stock 1.223 million tons, up 300,000 tons from last month, central and southern China regional inventories rose a larger inventory of other areas were mixed.
Figure: Rebar stock movements in major cities
3, downstream demand 9,10 month, will celebrate the market's peak season is peak season for construction works, based on the current set around a group of projects are speeding up the construction, especially the "railway, highway, the base" and other major construction projects of rebar, wire demand will increase.
Such as urban rail transit projects, steel, rail and other steel products in great demand. It is reported that in urban rail transit construction funds budget, some 40% of civil engineering, electrical and mechanical parts of vehicles accounted for 40%. Rail investment 100 million yuan per project, you can boost GDP growth of 2.6 billion, with equipment directly related to manufacturing, engineering infrastructure, important part of the steel industry chain will be huge orders, construction steel demand is expected to increase, which will support the market price stabilization in the area.
Chinese real estate industry is heating up. According to statistics, in January ~ July, real estate investment in fixed assets 1.77205 trillion yuan, up 11.6% over last year, an increase over the previous 6 months increased by 1.7 percentage points. On new capital investments from a single perspective, in July added 321.51 billion yuan, up 19.6%, an increase of 3 consecutive months has been more than 10%. This will boost steel demand, particularly in construction steel demand.
Present, high steel prices will enter a phase of downward adjustment, but the rate will not be too large, may continue for some time, like last year, steel prices plummeted in the second half of the scenario is unlikely. With the improvement of the downstream industry, in the fourth quarter of the overall steel market fundamentals continue to run the economy have not changed in September construction steel prices expected to continue to run high.
