subject: High Speed Rail Is Reshaping Transportation Pattern Analysis [print this page] Considered normal after discount airline, airline fares are 1.5 times higher iron; aviation, air can not determine the cost-price competition to compete with high-speed rail market share, only to rely on more efficient air travel time. In the air when the mileage is 400 km, both the time spent in the same, when the mileage reached 800 kilometers, the air than the high-speed rail saving about 1 hour. Mileage of 1100 kilometers, the air than the high-saving 2 hours. Mileage of 1,300 kilometers, the air than the high-speed rail to save time more than three hours. In Japan, when high-speed rail travel time, or less than the air when a small, high-speed railway will take absolute advantage, and air travel for more than a small constant of 0.5, both the transport market share is expected to be relatively quite, but when the time gap between the more than one hours circumstances, aviation will account for an absolute advantage. Opening of air and high-speed rail travel choice will lead to a structural change, but will form after the relative stability of their customer base.
Maximum speed of our high-speed rail is generally 350 km / h, while Japan is 250 km / h, determines the speed of the advantages of high-iron on the air a longer distance than the Japan economic development in China is much lower than Japan that passengers travel to visit relatives on the price sensitivity will be much higher than Japan, which will also lead to gaps at the same time, China Airlines is the proportion of high-speed rail diversion will be higher than expected Japanese produced in China for high absolute air superiority time difference will also be increased in Japan 1 hour to 3 hours.
Chengdu EMU case: distance 500 km railway, 400 kilometers air distance between cities, if the opening of High Speed Rail, is expected to air the army was collapsing. 600-800 km in the air route mileage is expected to substitute for the high proportion of iron on the air up to 60% after high-speed railway, aviation and high-speed railway will form the structure of their relatively stable customers, the airline reduced capacity by way of ensure that fare levels remain at normal levels.
High speed railway on the air after the impact of diversion, with the increase of travel distance, is the proportion of high-speed rail will gradually reduce segregation.
Based on the above analysis, we can draw the following hypothesis: When the air is less than 400 miles, the formation of high-speed rail will completely replace the air; as 400-600 km, the replacement ratio fell to 80%; and 600-800 km , the replacement ratio will drop to 60%; after the replacement ratio will gradually decrease as the distance increases to 1300-1500 km, the replacement of 10%; and when more than 1500 kilometers, we believe that the existing air travelers will not be by high-speed rail diversion.
