subject: Good Horseracing Handicapping Requires Reading the Fine Print, the Importance of Lengths [print this page] The old saying, "Can't see the forest for the trees," aptly applies to horse racing and reading past performances. We often get so wrapped up in a horses position in a race that we forget how important it is to note how close it ran to the pace setter.
I recently scored a nice exacta using a horse for second who was dropping in class and had shown good early speed. I didn't use the speed figures to determine that. I didn't use the horse's position in the race at each of the first two calls. Instead, I looked at that little number that indicates how many lengths behind the leader he ran.
Those little numbers are often more important than the big ones. For instance, it said that the horse was never better than seventh in its last race. It was dropping from a 16,000 claimer into a 7500 claimer and it looked like there were other horses that would be a much better choice. But the tiny number that told it was only two lengths off the leader at each of the early calls told me this horse had some pace and early speed.
I didn't need a computer or speed figures for that. He went off at the longest odds and coupled with the favorite he made a nice exacta and almost won the race. I am sure the fact that it ran second in its last race turned many bettors away from the horse, but it also ran within two lengths of the leader in a tougher race. In my experience, when a horse does that it is a pretty good bet to hit the board off a good class drop and that is exactly what happened.
So be sure to pay attention to the lengths and pace and don't worry as much about the position of a horse relative to the others. It still is pace that makes the race. Workout times, like Willie's Workouts can also point out horses that are ready to show a fast pace in a race despite recent disappointments.
Good Horseracing Handicapping Requires Reading the Fine Print, the Importance of Lengths
