subject: Rates Of Potential Investment Risks In China Ceramic Enterprises Need To Sink Marketing [print this page] 18 World Bank's China Quarterly Update released, especially on the Chinese real estate bubble and the local financial constraints warned. The Bank believes that the potential performance of the real estate bubble asset price crisis is perhaps the large monetary stimulus policies in China after one of the biggest macroeconomic risks.
In the afternoon, the SAC announced that 78 central enterprises will be out of real estate business, spin being viewed by the SASAC for the central enterprises to take to tide response. Enron to make huge profits have short hedge fund manager Jim? Xianuo Si is that China is a bigger bubble to be burst.
World Bank warned that the real estate companies and banks in many portfolio accounted for a significant proportion of the land and local governments rely heavily on transfer income, if the real estate decline will place all the financial and overall economic growth will be very significant impact.
Hanwei Sen, chief economist at the World Bank China Office, said: "We expect GDP growth of 9.5% this year, but growth there will be changes in the structure. The Government-led investment will certainly slow down, but exports are likely to rebound and as the global economy continue to rise, real estate is likely to continue strong growth this year, consumption will remain strong. "
As ceramics are closely related with the real estate industry should be careful to respond to this message. Ceramic industry in 2009 after the first cold-hot, in fact a true reflection of China's real estate industry. Since 2005, the national macro-control for the real estate market since the price has been in a grasp on the death and disorder in embarrassing situations.
Rapid growth in China, a country with the economic reform and development, resource prices, income levels and other necessary adjustments occur, certainly more frequently. For today's soaring real estate market is optimistic even then people do not ever have expected. But for those who continue to sing the air of an expert, rather than ridicule the theory of bankruptcy, as sooner or later come as a wake-up call.
Development will cover a lot of problems. As early as three years ago, the real estate sector will be well-known curator Wang Chih-kang real estate sector should collectively shouted "look for the soul", to suspend the fast-growing pace, slow breath before the line under the direction of thinking. There are some well-known real estate commentators as "black light index" to determine the real estate sector, the vacancy rate has reached an alarming level. But whatever the experts can not come up with convincing data and models to illustrate the problem.
The Bank also believes that the current real estate data quality is poor, resulting in the Chinese real estate prices are overvalued and the likelihood of falling prices is not clear, housing affordability, that is price earnings ratio, is not clear. This is leading to the government's macro decision-making can not touch the bottom in real terms.
Most Chinese cities are urgently needed new housing and public infrastructure. Old City is gradually advancing, the new city is rising, the traffic control network is gradually improving. Whether the needs of affluent residents live upgrade, or the protection of the urban poor housing, or the mass migration of the rural population into the city's temporary shelter, needed to supply a large number of buildings.
Large population base, hurricane advance of large-scale urbanization movement, the internal needs of the market transition, the political drive curing social wealth, plain married and dreams of so-called rigid requirements to support the real estate market heating up again.
McKinsey Global Institute (McKinseyInstitute) the pace of urbanization in the mode of writing with the most comprehensive report, by 2030, China's urban population may be nearly 400 million, 10 million people. China still needs a lot of roads, bridges, particularly housing?? This is the long-term investment boom in China will not bust the reason why.
It is this great and sweet cake, so that almost all the businesses involved have no time to wipe the mouth of the cream, more accustomed to by throwing money to "solve" the problem, rather than the more difficult structural adjustment reforms or technical innovation . "A championship team is no need to change" the law of this popular football, been given over-quoted business.
Simply by the investment-driven growth is undoubtedly inefficient, high-risk. So whether it is frequently created by the first-tier cities, "sites", or ceramic investors continually refresh the record of the kiln line, are worthy of vigilance and attention. Look at this situation from all the big cities of the real estate market is already running at a high level, but the construction of cities and towns are in the ascendant. Precautions, recommended ceramics enterprises should seize the time to market deepening, sinking to gather more migration of the population in rural and small towns, to guard against risk.
Even this appeal, the ceramic industry should abandon the sectarianism of the refinement and strengthening of data-depth study of, and authority of the reasonable sharing of the platform, good for business development and strategic decision-making provide a more detailed and reliable reference.
Rates Of Potential Investment Risks In China Ceramic Enterprises Need To Sink Marketing
