Is Cain Velasquez the next UFC heavyweight champion like everyone is making him out to be? My simple answer is yes and no.
I do believe that he will be a great fighter one day, but not when he steps in with Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira who has been one of the best heavyweights over the last decade.
Despite having 6 knock outs in his last 7 fights Velasquez is not the heavy striker that most people make him out to be. Yes Velasquez can KO people, but he is a "chucker" and he throws the wild over hand right with a lot of power. But against a technically good striker Velasquez will get picked apart.
If you look at his fight with Cheick Kongo he was picked apart with technical striking. Kongo only hit him with a couple of shots but Velasquez was hurt and you could see the holes in his striking game. If he fights a better technical striker Velasquez will get hit. Nogueira, trains at Black House with current UFC champions Anderson Silva, Lyoto Machida, and his twin brother Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira Most of the guys at that club are not power based strikers but more precision and technical strikers. That is the difference between theses 2 fighters. Power versus Technique. Ufc Betting Lines Explained
Nogueira may not have more power than Velasquez, but he is a better technical striker. Velasquez is a pressure fighter and if you look at most of his fights he likes to use his aggression and move forward. Like a typical wrestler he leans too far forward and rushes in. Again against most fighters this works and he will beat them down with speed, power and aggression. Nogueira won't knockout Velasquez, but his striking is technically sound that he will counter his pressure fighting. If Kongo was a better fighter his striking would have set up other aspects of fighting like grappling. Velasquez was badly hurt by his striking but was not afraid of other aspects of his game and Velasquez continued to come forward where he knew he could get the clinch and get tthe takedown. Against Nogueira he won't bet able to do this because of the threat of his bottom ground game.
If you look at Cain's last fight with Ben Rothwell at UFC 104: Machida vs. Shogun, he used his dominate wrestling game to pin down Rothwell. He came in for single leg takedowns and used his dominate wrestling game to impose his top wrestling game. From there he was able to land strikes. Yes he won the fight by strikes on the score sheet but it was his wrestling that set it up. He will not be able to do the same thing he did against Nog as he did against Rothwell. Nogueira has an incredible bottom grappling game and he will not let Velasquez pin his shoulder or hips down like Velasquez has down with other fighters. Nogueira is not going to let Cain pin him down and can roll out.
Nogueira is a top level fighter that is something that Cain does not have yet. Who has Cain beaten? He has not fought a top ten fighter in his career. Yes he has looked good against mid range and below average fighters but lets see how he does against a top level fighter. UFC betting wise the -120 lines for Nogueira is a good price to wager at. I would have set the Nogueira betting lines a bit higher, so to be this is a high value bet. Ufc Betting Lines Explained
