subject: The Biggest Class Drop in Horse Racing Produces Big Winners [print this page] Class is one of the key factors in horse racing and if you want to cash big tickets on winners, sometimes even long shots, you have to learn how to spot a big class drop. Admittedly, a big class drop will often result in a lot of action in the mutuels and the horse will go off at a short price, but not always. Even those horses that do get bet down to favoritism status deserve a look because no other move in horse racing produces more winners.
The problem, of course, is what really constitutes a good class drop? There are several situations that usually involve younger horses that, in my opinion, really do signify a big class drop and therefore, deserve respect from serious handicappers. The first such situation is when a horse is dropping into the claiming ranks for the first time.
These horses are usually well bred and were fairly expensive yearlings. The owners and trainers expected a lot from them and therefore, after breaking their maidens, they were placed in stakes and allowance races. So why are they now entered in a claiming race where the owner may lose the horse in the claim box? There can be several reasons for this.
First of all, there are some horses who mature slowly and the connections don't know how good the horse will be for years. They have invested so much in the horse that they run it in allowance races hoping the horse will eventually round into a strong performers. If the horse never satisfies their expectations, they may decide to cash out on the horse, let someone else claim it, and move on. It may also be that the horse has sustained an injury that now makes it less desirable and less likely to reach a higher level. Whatever the case may be, a horse that is entering the claiming ranks for the first time is a horse you have to consider as a contender.
The second big class drop is a similar situation. When a horse has been running in the maiden special weight races and then drops into a maiden claiming race, that is a huge drop in class. It means that the owner is no longer protecting the horse and expectations have been lowered. It also means it was facing much tougher competition. A horse that demonstrated little ability or interest in racing will often show a markedly improved performance against claimers.
These two class drops are the biggest in my opinion and anyone who is handicapping horse races for money should bear them in mind whenever handicapping a race.
The Biggest Class Drop in Horse Racing Produces Big Winners
