subject: First Time Starters in Maiden Races Are They Good Bets [print this page] I spent an entire year of my life handicapping and betting only maiden races. I am proud to say I made a profit, although a slim one at that. I did learn a lot about maidens, though, especially first time starters (FTT's) or first timers as they are sometimes called. I have also heard them referred to as virgins, firsters, debutants and a lot of other things I can't publish in a handicapping article. The reason so many people have such a low opinion of firsters is because they are an unknown item in a race full of barely known runners.
There are a lot of statistics available that can help you to get an idea of whether or not a firstie can win right out of the box. Also known as being precocious. The sire plays a key role as does the dam and her sire. While it is more common to handicap using sire stats, let me assure you that the dam has as big an impact on the young runner and knowing her family tree can tell you a lot about the youngster's chances.
The problem with all this prognostication is that it requires a lot of research for a firster. Therefore, unless you are a real fast reader or like to do hours of research, I suggest you don't handicap many maiden races with more than one firster in it. I also suggest that you never play a maiden race with more than two first time starters in it, ever.
Some people think the connections are the most important handicapping factor when looking at first time starters. They will point out that the trainer has a 20% win rate with horses he or she debuts. That may be true, but the horse would still have to be pretty long odds to make it profitable. You might also say that trainer has an 80% losing rate. That certainly paints the picture with a different brush, doesn't it?
The odds board will often be a good indication of whether or not a horse that is racing for the first time is a good bet. If an FTT is bet down to favoritism status it may be that it has impressed the insiders at the track with its morning works. Check them out to see if that is the case. If not, it may be that it is an impressive looking animal with a family tree that shows precocity. The most important consideration is the bottom line, or how much the risk is worth. The problem is that if the horse really does show speed and a family history of winning early, then the crowd and insiders will know and you won't get a fair price, therefore, overall, they are usually not a good bet, though there are always going to be exceptions.
First Time Starters in Maiden Races Are They Good Bets
