subject: The S-Age Answers Readers' Questions - Hot Topics For The Maturing Workplace by:Brad Taft [print this page] If you prepare for the future, you won't have to repair the past! THE S-AGE!
Q. How many regular, full-time jobs did the U.S. shed in 2008?
A. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US shed over 750,000 jobs last year. While you are seeking specific numbers, be aware that BLS unemployment data is understated. A changing employment model and inaccurate data call into question the jobs numbers' worth in evaluating its impact to the market and to the economy. Also, be aware of the thinly veiled layoff model labeled "early retirement." So-called "early" retirees are viewed as "retired" - even though they have, simply stated, accepted an enhanced layoff package and many (if not most) are not retirement ready.
Q. Where have all the regular, full-time jobs in America gone?
A. Remember the song, where have all the flowers gone? You do if you're a Boomer! Think about the song's underlying message as it applies to today's loss of regular, full-time jobs.
1. Labor intensive products will be manufactured in the countries with the lowest labor rates and lowest costs of production. Multi-national companies are shagging many of the regular, full-time jobs and you cannot expect a multi-national company to look after our interest to keep our population employed.
Watch this trend carefully because without research, development and investment into new technologies, the ultimate result could turn out to be the American worker accepting emerging countries' wages in order to survive. Ouch2. The temporary market will continue to expand because of an increase in just-in-time opportunities as the market shifts from longevity-based pay to market-driven pay.
Which is not to say that all temporary firms are thriving as many of the best candidates are, and will be, independent agents that save the company money and put a little more of it in their own pockets. Watch this trend at the same time as you watch the progress of National Health Care initiatives.
3. Lower paid jobs will continue to shift to "under the table" pay. This is where many under-skilled, "undocumented aliens" will continue to receive the bulk of their wages. Likewise, expect more trades and bartering for services from by the service community.
4. Jobs will continue to be lost to automation by U.S. manufacturers who must reduce labor costs.
5. Increasing numbers of people will remain unemployable. They will remain unemployable unless, or until, they re-train or re-educate themselves for jobs the nation needs. Remember that unemployment is not limited to blue-collar jobs. For example, there are plenty of investment bankers without the skills for immediate alternative employment.
Here's a short story from the Ministry of Justice in Japan with a lesson for the U.S.
"After 20 years of falling wages, a sluggish economy and rising health costs, Japan's retirees are doing it tough. Authorities have noted a rise in shoplifting and petty crime, not from Japanese youth but from senior citizens. The Ministry of Justice is reporting that criminal offences by people 65 years or older has doubled to 48,605 in the five years to 2008, the most since police began compiling national statistics in 1978.
Authorities are bracing for an increase in elderly crime. In 2007, the over-60s accounted for 18.9% of all crimes, compared with 3.1% in 1978. And 80% of the crime is shoplifting."
There is even a suggestion in the story that some Japanese men who have "lost their wives are committing crimes so they can be thrown into jail and enjoy three meals a day!"
Could this happen here if pension-less Americans live longer?
Can we stave off this problem through work?
What's the lesson for employers?
The employment model has changed forever. Setup your retiree and former employee job banks and use these experienced folks for project work. "Don't cut out your training budget to spite your continued improvement in productivity" - instead, re-focus on new ways to help people learn at the most affordable costs. Now is the time to implement phased retirement in order to reduce costs significantly. This is the moment to re-negotiate rates with temporary firms. Keep as many people working - in any capacity - as possible.
A quote from Wizard Mark Thoma, economist at the University of Oregon, seems relevant to the U.S.A's employment changes:"It's the feeling you have when you suddenly discover that everything you thought you knew about something, something you believed and relied upon for years, is wrong (like when you find out something your parents told you just isn't so). Those are moments that can stop you in your tracks while you reevaluate and figure out what it all means, while you take time to figure out how you should respond in the future."
Q. Will Boomers be especially vulnerable to layoffs in a downturned economy?
A. You bet they will. Keep in mind that rising unemployment goes along with recessions. The highest paid employees are typically the long-term (older) employees. It goes without saying that unless employers and individuals come to accept that the market - not longevity - determines pay; the higher paid workers will become increasingly vulnerable as the recession drags on. Before cutting experience, both should consider the benefits of adjusting pay to meet the economic realities of a new time. When you can manage the variable people costs and still retain employees, in some capacity, both the employer and the individual minimize losses and are afforded the opportunity and time to reposition for the future.
Look beyond the current downturn to the history of job growth. Since 2000, there have been 12 quarters of negative job growth. Compare that to 17 quarters of negative job growth between 1970 and 2000 (1970's = 6 quarters, 1980's = 7 quarters, 1990's = 4 quarters). As expected, negative job growth is increasing.
Here's what two nationally respected economists say about what you, as a leader, should know about our new book, Return of the Boomers, and why you should be concerned with keeping mature workers engaged in the workplace.
From Dr. John Mitchell, Partner of M&H Economic Consultants: "In a world focused on short term developments in housing, equity and the financial markets, it is very easy to lose sight of extraordinarily important long term issues. RETURN OF THE BOOMERS, A Leader's Guide, is an entertaining, thought provoking book that will force managers to think about some of their challenges and options in years ahead."
From Dr. Stephen Happel, Professor of Economics at Arizona State University: "I found RETURN OF THE BOOMERS to be a fascinating read. The book is a stimulating confluence of generational economics, statistical forecasting and the contribution keeping "Baby Boomers" in the American workforce can make in consumption maintenance, short-term entitlements demand reduction and assisting in the transition of a new generation of innovators and achievers."
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