Say what you want about Thursday Night Football taking away from tradition but that Pittsburgh loss to Cleveland has revealed an element to this Sundays card that was nearly impossible to imagine before kickoff.
Baltimore, Miami and the New York Jets are the teams most affected by the outcome and while the importance of winning this weekend was always high, the opening to a playoff door just got wider.
The Denver Broncos are still in the drivers seat atop the Wild Card standings and Jacksonville controls its own destiny, but news out of Florida on Friday is that Rashean Mathis (groin), Mike Sims-Walker (calf) and John Henderson (shoulder) are all doubtful for Sundays matchup vs. the Dolphins. It has sent the line tumbling and has all but guaranteed you wont be catching the Ravens or Jets looking past their games against lesser opponents.
Ahhh, football in December... youve gotta love it.
A successful 4-1 Sunday in Week 13 helped turn our overall record back in the right direction. Weve now posted winning records in three of the past four weeks (12-9, 57-percent) and look to continue with five more best bets for Sunday.
GREEN BAY (8-4) AT CHICAGO (5-7)
Line: Packers -3.5
Over/Under: 41
Two teams full of hope when they met in Week 1 go head to head and the picture is a lot clearer now. Green Bay has won four in a row (3-1 ATS) and is in line for a Wild Card if season ended today. The Packers defense has done its job despite injuries while Chicagos never seemed to rise above loss of Brian Urlacher. Biggest improvement in Green Bay has been protection for QB Rodgers. Pack has allowed only eight sacks in the past four games compared with average of 4.5 per game through first nine weeks. The field goal line has come with a price all week but buying down here with a divisional road favorite is a wise move.
BetRepublic.com Pick: Take the Packers
DETROIT (2-10) AT BALTIMORE (6-6)
Line: Ravens -13.5
Over/Under: 39.5
Its rarely a good alternative handing the ball to a QB who last engineered a win over two years ago but given the state of the Lions season and the condition of QB Stafford; Daunte Culpepper is the best alternative for Jim Schwartz. Detroit cant get any worse at turnovers; they are already leading that category and with Culpepper using this game as a live audition for another roster in 2010 we expect a decent performance. Baltimore should also refocus after losing on Monday at Green Bay and the Ravens are known to put up plenty of points against bad defensive teams.
BetRepublic.com Pick: Take the "Over"
MIAMI (6-6) AT JACKSONVILLE (7-5)
Line: Jaguars -3
Over/Under: 44
Just as the Dolphins are starting to hit full-stride it appears the Jaguars could be ready to stumble. Jacksonville shrugged off its second disappointing visit to the west coast this season by winning a crucial game against the Texans last week. Miami pulled off an upset that rivals Clevelands feat and now has the scent of the AFC East title. QB Henne threw for a career high 335 yards last week, RB Williams is on track for 1,000 yards and special teams are solid. If the defense can keep RB Jones-Drew in check we like Miamis chances of possibly winning straight-up.
BetRepublic.com Pick: Take the Dolphins
SAN DIEGO (9-3) AT DALLAS (8-4)
Line: Cowboys -3
Over/Under: 48.5
Its not often you find a division leader thats playing its best football of the season getting this many points but Dallas has a home record that warrants the number. Sportsbooks are looking for balanced action, too, and the Cowboys win vs. the Giants last weekend has attracted support. There is something about those Cowboy home victories that has us liking the dog in this contest. Carolina, Atlanta, Seattle, Washington and Oakland have a combined road record of 6-24 SU (.200) while San Diego is 5-1 SU away from home and 2-0 in non-Conference play.
BetRepublic.com Pick: Take the Chargers
WASHINGTON (3-9) AT OAKLAND (4-8)
Line: Redskins -1
Over/Under: 37.5
The Skins were oh so close to dethroning the undefeated Saints last week and now travel to the west coast to face a Raiders team who, by all accounts, just won its Super Bowl for the year in Pittsburgh. We look for the Redskins to play hard on both sides of the ball and not fall victim to the black hole but think that defense from both teams will have a greater say in determining this outcome. Betting the total in this game holds more appeal to us than either side.
