2010 In The First Half Of The Domestic Market Volume Of Nitrogen Resources - Fertilizer, Resources -

HC Chemical Network Hearing, the Spring Festival

, China N Industry Association, the Organization held in Beijing in spring nitrogen fertilizer market in 2010 to analyze the situation. Comprehensive analysis of industry experts drawn from the basic view is: the first half of 2010 the basic balance between supply and demand and nitrogen slightly tight situation, but will not be tight; Urea Prices remained at 1800 ~ 1900 yuan per ton between. According to the China Fertilizer Industry Association

relevant statistics: in 2009 production was 51.355 million tons of synthetic ammonia; physical output of 55.003 million tons of urea, an increase of 7.7%.

According to expert analysis, the first half of nitrogen resource for the fourth quarter of 2009 should be the amount of resources and resource quantity in the first half of this year and, all of the nitrogen comes from ammonia nitrogen. The figure of the first half in particular, according to the first quarter of coal, electricity, transport and difficulties, the first coal production enterprises affected by the power load will be reduced by 10% to 30%; Although the head of Southwest sets of gas Fertilizer Enterprises new capacity into production, but only compensate for the Natural gas Caused by insufficient production cuts. Only in the first half Oil System about 150 million tons of urea reduction. Ammonia production in the first half of this year there will be no marked increase, almost the same as last year, about 25.45 million tons.

This year, agricultural, industrial consumption growth in demand would be better than last year. Fertilizer market is forecast during the first half of this year a little tight supply-demand balance situation. Along with the mechanism of resource products pricing reforms, nitrogen fertilizer production in 2010 rising raw material prices pressures remain strong, rising costs of rigidity determine the first half of nitrogen fertilizer prices will be higher than in 2009.

Supply and demand Sichuan existing production capacity 4.48 million tons of urea, 99% of natural gas feedstock for the production, only about 1% of raw coal production. 2009, total capacity of 64.44 million tons of urea country, Sichuan accounts for 7% of urea production. Florida in 2010 Sichuan region will add 1 million tons of urea production, urea production capacity in Sichuan will reach 5.48 million tons. National gas head 27% of urea production, coal accounted for 73% of raw materials in 2009, the national capacity of 17.42 million tons of urea with gas, gas from urea production capacity in Sichuan accounted for 26%.

Sichuan effective irrigation area 2506.7 thousand hectares (by the end of 2008 Data), the effective irrigated area accounts for 4.29%; Sichuan nitrogen consumption of 1,286,000 tons in (off net), of which about 2,000,000 tons of urea (physical) . By Sichuan existing capacity, in the urea business started more than 50% of the cases, the urea market is basically still on the state of oversupply. Through the years Sell Data analysis, 3 May as the main demand in Sichuan season, 9 November as the most sluggish sales season. Time resource consumption in Sichuan relative concentration of urea, businesses bear a heavier and Sinotrans for light storage function Wong.

The effect of higher gas prices

It is understood that the international market for natural gas as raw materials to produce urea in major countries and regions, gas prices are: North America 1.21 yuan (RMB / cubic meter, the same below) is about; Russia's natural gas reserves, the world's largest regional , was 0.30 yuan; in the Middle East is about 0.25 yuan. China Natural Gas with gas companies, the average price of 1.18 yuan, can be seen at a high level of natural gas prices.

Domestic urea production with gas from the gas consumption of about 600 700 m3 per ton, the average production cost of urea in 1200 to 1,300 yuan (t value, the same below). If natural gas prices up 0.2 yuan, 150 yuan would rise in the cost of urea is about the cost of up to 1,350 ~ 1,450 yuan; if natural gas prices up 0.4 yuan, 300 yuan would rise in the cost of urea is about the cost of up to 1,500 ~ 1,550 yuan; together with 200 ~ 300 yuan and other costs, estimated the cost of gas from urea about 1750 yuan, the head of coal enterprises and the current cost of convergence, may not have any cost advantage.

North and the Yangtze River region last winter and spring demand for natural gas increased substantially, resulting in first half of last year, especially in the second half and a quarter less gas with gas from urea companies, the manufacturers have been forced in varying degrees to extend the stop production downtime, half the entire southwest region of urea supply will decrease to some extent.

by: gaga

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