China Machinery Industry Development in 2010 and run trend forecasting - China Machinery Industry, run trend - Construction Machinery Industry

China Machinery Industry Development in 2010 and run trend forecasting - China Machinery Industry

, run trend - Construction Machinery Industry

2009 was already drawing to a close, inventory Machinery Industry Economic performance over the past year, the overall satisfactory performance. From the fourth quarter of 2008, subject to international Financial Crisis, the machinery industry of major economic indicators appeared sharp decline in growth momentum, creating the largest decline in recent years to February 2009, growth data of major economic indicators to its lowest in nearly seven years, while the bottom. Since then in response to the severe impact of the international financial crisis, the State Council to implement a package of comprehensive plan, including implementation of the Steel , Equipment manufacturing, automotive and other 10 key industries restructuring and revitalization plans, including appliances, cars Motorcycle The countryside, agricultural subsidies, the policy of expanding domestic demand in some areas, the implementation of the package effect is obvious, in this backdrop, domestic demand is getting warmer, machinery turning the corner, and the industrial added value of industrial output growth rate steadily month by month bounced back, two percentage points higher than the industry average growth for the countries to achieve "capital growth" has made outstanding contributions to the goal. Can be said that the foundation of economic growth machinery industry is gradually stable.

The end of 2009 with the arrival of machinery industry in 2010 how the industry trend, can continue to follow this trend of recovery and stable growth, it has become a common focus. Here we have to analyze the environmental factors at home and abroad next year and machinery industry development trend and speed.

1. Foreign environment as a whole is getting better, but still full of uncertainties

The global economy, good or bad not only to the national macro-economic trends, will also directly affect the development of China's machinery industry, particularly the level and pace of import and export.

The world economy has started to appear signs of bottoming out, the overall trend is already getting better, foreign trade market is expected to stop the momentum continued to fall, which the development of China's machinery industry is a positive signal. But the world economic recovery is a slow and tortuous process, the development of international economic uncertainty, instability is still a lot.

First, the global economy "W" the trend remains. From a global perspective despite the economic recovery has begun, but there is another view of "sustainable recovery" will not happen soon, economists believe the economy "W" the trend remains. Recalling the Great Depression, the U.S. economy after a recession had already appeared in the "second bottom" trend. The phenomenal global economic recession, the crisis has left a "serious injuries", and will affect the next few years the global supply and demand.

Second, large-scale foreign government fiscal and monetary stimulus may quit. The reason why the global economy in such a short period of time there signs of bottoming out, with governments massive fiscal and monetary stimulus is inseparable from government regulation to a large extent "instead of" market regulation to promote economic rebound . Once governments are unwilling or unable to re-pay the price for the financial crisis, but to opt out, then the impact of the global economic recovery would be enormous, the economic rebound in the downward inflection point is not impossible.

Third, international trade protectionism and have extended spreading. Although the economy pick up signs of Western developed countries, but the current international trade protectionism, trade frictions with China have worsened, and there continue to expand spreading, so China's machinery industry exports began to rise again is not optimistic. While external demand is expected to be turned back to the market growth, but is unlikely to grow substantially. Therefore, the export market recovery next year can not be too optimistic. But because this year's low base, growth is expected next year will likely go up again.

Fourth, global inflation and global economic slowdown and now. With the slowdown in world economic growth, inflation also showed the trend of globalization. With the international market Oil , Energy and agricultural products such as commodity prices rose sharply in most countries and regions are facing growing inflationary pressures. International Monetary Fund recently warned that global inflation has become a major threat to the world economy, and further sub-prime crisis triggered global credit market crisis, has become the most important issue faced by all countries.

Fifth, sovereign credit crisis began to trouble the world. The global financial crisis a year later, Dubai has now debt crisis, then, Portugal, Greece, Spain and other countries have sovereign credit ratings were down, the U.S. public debt on the rise, credit risk is too large Central and Eastern Europe, the United Kingdom's sovereign credit is a warning, emerging solvency economy declined, so the number of debt-ridden countries frequently early warning signals, sovereign credit crisis or distress in the coming year will be the major obstacle to global economic recovery.

Addition, the unemployment rate remains high, financial institutions, "deleveraging" not yet completed, consumers tightening live, high debt affect the world economic outlook are all negative factors. The factors affecting the world economy, while also affecting the country's macroeconomic and machinery industry economic trends, particularly the development of foreign trade situation.

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