How Scratches and Changes Affect Horse Racing and Betting

You've spent all night handicaping the horse races and now you are ready to make some bets

. Perhaps you have chosen some horses that you think are going to have a real good chance of winning their race. On the other hand, you may have made a morning line for each race that you have an interest in. The other alternative might be that you have identified some spot plays.

Whatever method you have chosen to use, you should never look at those figures or choices as set in stone. Before every horse race you should always look at every possible factor that can change and then assess how it will change the probable outcome of the race. For instance, you may have determined that the 3 is a good bet in a race only to see it sweating excessively in the post parade. Therefore, you decide not to bet on and you bet against it with your second choice. If you hadn't spotted it, however, you might have made a bad bet.

Whether it is a change in equipment, such as the addition of lasix or a change on the shoe board, or a change in jockey, all these things must be taken into consideration before deciding what constitutes a good betting opportunity. If for instance, you thought the 4 was a good horse in a race, but decided that there was a bad pace scenario because of another horse, the scratching of that other horse would suddenly make a good wagering opportunity.

The biggest change of all, obviously, is scratches. If you have a morning line based on 100% minus the takeout and then a horse is removed, you must make mathematical adjustments to your line to compensate for this. Scratches can have an effect in the following ways...

A. Your choice is scratched, so no bet or bet your second choice if you have one.

B. A horse is scratched that would have affected the pace of the race, it may make a better opportunity of a worse opportunity.

C. A horse is scratched that the crowd would have bet, but since it is now gone, they are over betting your choice, making the odds prohibitive.

As you can see, it is foolhardy to make up your mind to bet on a horse until you get the final changes just before post time.

How Scratches and Changes Affect Horse Racing and Betting

By: Bill Peterson

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