How to Handicap a Horse Race Using the Most Important Factors

How to Handicap a Horse Race Using the Most Important Factors

If you want to handicap a horse race and really have an idea of what is going to happen, or at least to identify the most likely winner, then you will need to know which factors matter and how to use them. My own research has shown that class, speed, recent form, are the factors that will point you to more winners. You may think to yourself, "That isn't exactly news." I agree. But the fact that those factors matter, and yet people who supposedly understand them and use them still lose, should show you that they aren't using them correctly.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying it is ever easy to handicap horse races and to consistently pick winners, but it is possible. Just how good at handicapping are you? Do you look at a race and truly understand which horse has a speed edge or a class edge? Can you identify that special situation when a horse has both a speed and class edge? You may think that when a horse has both the highest average speed and class that it is always a prohibitive favorite, but such is not the case.

One horse who recently raced and won at Belmont, and that showed such an advantage, was Maya Charli, the 4 in the 8th race on Saturday, June 19th. Maya Charli paid $16.20 to win, and yet showed both the top class and speed using my key horse method. That is why I urge all handicappers to learn how to identify speed and real class. Checking your top picks against my key horses is one way to do it.

I define real class as the ability to compete and finish well at or above the level that the other horses in the race have recently faced. You can't just look at purses in the race and define class. Anyone who has handicapped enough horse races knows that the horses in one $10,000 claiming race may not be the same caliber of horses as you will find in another race of equal purse value. Therefore, I look at the race and determine the ability level of each horse. The top horse, in other words, the one with the highest ability level, becomes the class of the race.

Any horse that can compete at that level in the race and has recently demonstrated that ability, is considered a fit and ready horse. Any horse that is fit and ready should be considered in exotics. Once again, you may think that a race with just one fit and ready horse would produce a prohibitive favorite, but on Friday, June 18th, Twofourseven won at Harrah's Chester Race Track and paid $35.80. I had identified that horse, racing from post position 1, as the only fit and ready horse in the race.

What I am trying to impress upon you is that the basic factors really do work in horse racing handicapping just as the basics work in any field of endeavor, you just have to really master them. Think of handicapping a horse race as a sport, indeed, many people call it an intellectual sport. Do you know of any sport that a professional athlete can play and win at without mastering the basics? No matter how good an athlete may become, he or she can never forget the basics or the rest means nothing. The same is true of horse racing handicapping. Master the basics, learn to identify key horses and fit and ready horses and you may someday become a professional handicapper.

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