How to Make MLB Picks

How to Make MLB Picks

How to Make MLB Picks

Major League Baseball is one of the easiest sports to handicapshould you have a vast database of statistics, that is. In order to make successful MLB picks, you must rely heavily on the numbers that the teams involved have produced during past performances. Because not many of us have access to the stats we will need to make appropriate choices, paying a professional handicapper for MLB picks becomes a valid option.

Over the last several years, a new form of baseball study has emerged. Called sabermetrics, this branch of baseball analysis has revolutionized how fans of baseball, especially fantasy baseball players, evaluate the games. For example, sabermetrics have changed the way fans look at prospective talent. Rather than looking at batting average, these fans now study on base percentage and slugging averages to find out just how important a player is to a team. Batting averages are still a good measure of talent, they just don't show the whole picture. A batter who has 30 singles in 100 at bats has the same batting average as a guy who hits 30 homeruns in 100 at bats. Sabermetricians will value the power hitter much more than the batter simply hitting singles by studying their slugging percentage.

The difficulty in sabermetrics is that there are so many statistics in baseball that you need a rather large number of examples to decide whether a team with a runner on first and second with no outs is in a better position that a team with a runner on third and one out. Just looking at one or two examples is not going to cut it, you need to look at hundreds (or thousands) of similar situations to decide which team has the advantage in the above example.

Another problem with older baseball stats is the fact that pitchers were getting too much credit for things they couldn't control and not enough credit for the events that they could. Multiple studies have shown that a pitcher with a good ERA one year might have a horrible one the next. At first, people thought that this was just a sign of a decline in pitching talent, but sabermetrics have shown that ERA is simply not a good indicator of a pitcher's actual skill level. Rather, they use strikeouts and WHIP numbers now to determine how effective a pitcher is. The strikeout number is obviously important because it shows how good a pitcher is at getting batters out by their selves. WHIP (Walks + Hits / Innings Pitched) will give us a better look at how many batters a pitcher lets on base, whereas plain old ERA only accounted for runs that the pitcher may or may not have acutally been responsible for.

MLB picks can be easy, but you do need quite a bit of tools at your disposal. Otherwise, when betting on MLB, you should consider a handicapping service.

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