Human Reaction To Storms Is Typically, Well, Human

If those living along coastal areas have learned anything it is the impact that is

felt by storms like Hurricane Sandy.Many homeowners came to the realization of just how fragile a city composed mostly of low-lying islands can be. This reality has put New Yorkers as well as those living along the New Jersey shore in aninsecure mood.

The New YorkTimesexpressed these anxieties in a recently published article titled Is This the End? which pondered the mortality of Americas largest metropolis. Having coastal property insurance will help many to rebuild and recover from the damage that was wrought, but in the meantime, it brings into question what a world filling with higher sea levels and more extreme weather will mean for New York City and other coastal communities.

Could constant flooding from storms lower real estate prices in coastal areas?

One logical result could be cheaper real estate prices. Even with the benefit ofgovernment-subsidized, below-market flood insurance, who wants to deal with their first floor getting destroyed by floodwaters every few years? Chances are good that high-elevation property will soon become more of a hot commodity in New York City, and other areas prone to flooding.

In the aftermath of Sandy, this sort of reaction seems fairly rational. Anyone shopping for a home should consult National Flood Insurance Program maps to understand what the estimated risk of flooding is for their property, protect themselves with flood insurance, and possibly even decide against buying a home at all if its located in a flood-prone area.

Flood concerns dwindle with the passing of time

However, many people wont always act rationally when it comes to natural disasters. Most people are less able to judge the probability of an eventoccurring that they have not themselves recently experienced. And a person who hasnt lived through a flood will downplay the probability of his house getting flooded, and the same goes for someone who hasnt experienced a flood in some time.

While these types of reactions to a hurricane may seem completely irrational, people generally tend to underestimate just how short our memories can be. It doesnt take long for a prospective homebuyer to forget the dangers of living in flood-prone areas.Once those affected are a few years removed from the devastation of Hurricane Sandy, theyll likely come flocking back to those river views and trendy, low-lying Brooklyn neighborhoods.

How much climate change will increase the frequency of Sandy-like events is uncertain, but we may see a tipping point when extreme weather events become so frequent that we dont have time to forget them in between. This could quite possibly drive down real estate prices for good.

by: Clarence S. Frazier

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