In regulatory rules although not yet available
In regulatory rules although not yet available
, but the news affected, recent Bank of slab has emerged a more substantial adjustments. Legendary capital adequacy rules and provisions of the new requirements of the two more significant policy changes once implemented, it is possible to give the Bank the impact according to the recent brokerage? for calculation, in view of the future could face total earmarked improving policies, prices decreased risks and government financing platform lending standards strictly, the result is really hard to say that optimistic.First look at the impact of the new provisions. According to reports, the CBRC is discussed
Replica Watches in accordance with the commercial banks with loans for impairment of the deliberations of the major banks of provisions/total lending rate to achieve 2.5% shareholding bank requirements 2.4 percent.
According to this implementation, small and medium-sized banks will face greater pressure. By 2010, the mid-term data to the Bank only 601288, agricultural Bank of China Construction Bank, China, respectively 3.15%, 2.49 2.49 percent. Five State-owned banks, the average value of this indicator is 2.45%, Nikkei minimum 1.97%. Joint-stock Bank averaged 1.81%, of which minimum for deep development, Societe Generale Bank (601166, unit bar (1.37%), CITIC Bank 601998, unit bar 1.38%; the three commercial, Nanjing, Beijing, Ningbo, 2.15%, 1.95 1.27 percent. According to the Swiss securities calculation, if the State-owned banks and joint-stock Bank 2.5% and prorated 2.4% set aside for mid 2010, ICBC 601398, unit bar, Bank of China (601988, unit bar), the Bank needed to supplement the provisions set aside Fake Watches annual profits of 2.9%, 8.2 17.4 percent. Small and medium-sized banks face gaps are larger, CITIC, Societe Generale, deep development needs references to the provision of equivalent provisions respectively before profit 37.9%, 32.6%, 44.6% pufa, livelihood, Everbright 21.5%, 20.4%, 14.48% and 5.1%; Beijing, Nanjing, Ningbo, 35.4%, 14% and 5.7%.
According to their analysis, in the short term, if the requirements for reaching the end of the year, the supplementary provision gaps will slow the overall performance of the banks, loan losses for the low rate of the Bank as a letter, deep development, Societe Generale, Ningbo Bank unit bar will face more challenges than the performance drop is forecasting cuts in more than 30%. However, in the long run, this is the original part of the profits to set aside more adequate provision will make the Bank's financial situation safer, stronger risk resilience. Changjiang securities (000783, unit bar) analyst Harry Chan in another Rolex Watches relatively mild assumption under analysis. This scenario assumes that the listed banks 2010 total coverage that is, to set aside provisions/total loans, the total increased to 2%, 2011 2.5 percent. Test results show that the impact of policies on the State-owned banks to banks and commercial banks, which, adjusted for 2010 and 2011, joint-stock commercial bank profit decrease 7.41% and 11.07% CCBs falling 3.02 12.85 percent.
Harry Chan also predicts that the implementation of this policy will result in loans in the next few years to return to the historical average, bad hair generated will rebound, the Bank always set aside coverage is insufficient to cover the potential risks. CICC if required 3 years standard assumptions for the calculation, the results show that in the context of State-owned banks, joint-stock commercial bank and net profit for the period of 1.2%, 9.1 5.3 percent. Banking profit model trial. In fact, since the financial crisis in 2008, the CBRC has been set aside in raising standards, provisions cover regulatory baseline has been 100% two years ago, step by step up to 150%. According to statistics, by the end of July this year, banks set aside more than 188% coverage. But their provisions cover the growth on the surface, it conceals the non-negligible risk. In the past two years, bank loans increased, resulting in bad loans and rates in all the loans as a proportion of the double down, and set aside to cover formula is made ready and the ratio of nonperforming loans, as denominator, the value was also able to greatly increase. However, to set aside a further increase coverage, but also to have been exposed to denominator of bad loans, but does not include a considerable risk of local financing platform and real estate loans, and so large now seemingly or normal classes and class of Tiffany Jewelry the loan. The proposed new regulation, a provision to bad loans to denominator of old ideas with loans the denominator.
In this context, each institution's analysis also pointed out that the new addition to the provision of Bank profits, but also on the Bank's profit model and have a significant impact on business operation. At present, China's banking industry profit model is eating spreads, loan growth, the faster the more profit increase, a significant increase in the loan is subject to a significant increase in deposits, deposits of the premise is to have adequate capital adequacy, keep money, big capital scale, so the cycle. The new implementation provisions, first of all affect the Bank's deposit and lending rate Swiss Watches differential, and set aside if 2.5%, banks improve provision, it will make the difference in the direction of about 1% smaller, and the current deposit and lending. After the new loan of $ 100, the original 3.06 element, but will now make 2.5% into the reserve, Maori become 0.56%. In this way, eat the spreads of the profit model is Subversion, which is the faster growth of bank loans, 2.5% set aside for bound for profit erosion and the impact will be greater. Moreover, in this context, the implementation of the new provisions will also be reduced if the Bank's lending will, from this perspective, the domestic bank credit assets in high-growth business behaviour will also face challenges.
In regulatory rules although not yet available
By: louboutin88
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