Making Decisions With Incomplete Information
David Sklansky defines mistakes made in playing poker in a simple
, easily understood manner. He asks the question, "Would you play your hand differently if you knew the cards held by your opponent?" If your response to this question is yes, then you have made a mistake. If your answer is no then you played correctly. The overarching fact inferred in this definition is that poker is a game played with incomplete (not insufficient) information. Decisions must be made without complete knowledge of the strength of your opponent's hand. But the fact remains that you actually have a good deal of very useful information about a player, even if you don't know his exact holdings.
Sufficient Information
Much of the information one has regarding one's opponents comes from careful observation of their play. If it is true that past tendencies are a good predictor of future action, then if you are careful about how you observe your opponent's play it is likely that you will infer some helpful trends that will influence your decisions when playing against that opponent.
Say, for example, your opponent plays conservatively except when in the blinds. He seems to defend his blinds, especially the big blind, every time. If that is the case you now have knowledge that is quite useful when playing against him when he is in the blinds. Since we know that only 20% to 30% of all 1326 possible two hand combinations from a deck of cards containing 52 cards are playable depending on how loose or tight your opponent is playing, and it is also clear that any made hand is a favorite over any other random hand dealt, it makes sense that a player playing every hand from the blinds is unlikely to be strong 4 out of 5 times. It makes it easy to play back aggressively when you have a strong hand against the loose defender of blinds. If he then comes over the top, you have an easy laydown. But, on the flop a strong play is also likely to get him off a weak hand.
You may also be able to determine if a player is playing loose or tight, whether he is aggressive or passive or a combination of both aggression and passivity. You may also be able to observe how your opponent reacts to pressure from players acting before he acts or after he acts. If you find that he folds under pressure then your decision to play back at him is made easier. If, on the other hand, he is a calling station then pressure is not something that can effectively be applied. You may also be able to observe whether a player plays position or not by the way he bets from various places at the table. All of this information is yours if you are willing to observe action at the table even when you are not in a hand.
There is a clear difference between incomplete and insufficient information. Through careful observation you can determine if a player plays very strong hands or monsters exclusively or whether a player speculates with marginal hands. This information is valuable when placing an opponent on a range of hands they may be playing. I like to keep a rough approximation of how often a player voluntarily commits money to the pot. I think in terms of colors to level a player. One who voluntarily puts money in the pot 10% or less of the time I label as a yellow player, one whom I am willing to play against only when I hold very strong cards because I know that they only play monsters. From 10% to around 17% is the orange zone. Their range is a bit broader than that of the Yellow zone but not by much. Caution is advised. The green zone is reserved for players who voluntarily put money in the pot between 17% and 27% of the time. These players have a range of hands that appear quite normal. They are solid players with a reasonable range of playable hands. The white zone covers a range from about 27% to 40% VP$IP. Over 40% and you fall into the red zone, players that are maniacs willing to see a flop with any two cards. They are the bullies at the table and I love playing against them. They make it so easy to get them to stack off with second best so often that it is always profitable to play against them with strong hands and better.
The point here is simple. Information on players is always available at the poker table. Clearly, in order to gather this information you must be in the game even when you are not in a hand. Watching what players do in different situations goes a long way in helping you make valuable inferences about what they are likely to do in the same or similar situation in the future.
Gathering Information
Gathering information on your opponents requires two important skills. One is a commitment to focused observation so that you make both mental and physical notes on a player's game. The more you play with the same player the better your read on that player's likely response to predictable situations. Staying focused during a session must be your goal. When I am playing on line I use poker tracking software like Hold'em Manager or Poker Edge to track my play as well as the play of those I am playing against. When I play in a brick and mortar poker room I make some immediate notes about what I observed within minutes after leaving the table.
Beyond observation and record keeping, one must also develop a working knowledge of poker math. It is this skill that makes decisions on the turn and river either profitable or unprofitable decisions. In short, given the information you have gathered about your opponents, the number of outs you have to make a hand, and the price offered by the pot, is your call or raise on later streets going to make you money over the long term.
Armed with sufficient information one is able to make reasoned decisions that are situationally correct and, therefore, are not mistakes given the narrow definition of mistake that opened this post. Sufficient information is what one has to work with at the poker table and, when diligently applied, is as good as knowing what your opponent holds in his hand.
by: Roger Fischel
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