NFL Predictions: The Art of Picking an Upset
NFL Predictions: The Art of Picking an Upset
NFL Predictions: The Art of Picking an Upset
Not all NFL predictions are created equalsome are no-brainers that even a causal fan would spot, while others are lurking in the shadows where only a few select prescient beings can see. This week we'll deal with the true upsets, and suss out some principles to apply to future
NFL predictionsIn week 9, there was no bigger upset than Cleveland's dominant 34-14 win against New England. Using a power running attack and forcing a few timely turnovers, the Browns had the Patriots on their heels the entire day, overplaying the supposed best team in the league. Let's take a look back and see if there was any way to see this coming.
Strength of Record
This match-up looked lopsided prior to the game, based on each team's record and recent history. The Patriots boasted a league-best 6-1 record coming into the game, including their last 3 wins that all came down to 4th quarter execution and a few timely plays, some of which were simply luck or bad/dumb plays by the other team.
On the flipside, the Brownsa historically bad team with only 2 winning seasons in the last decadecame into the contest at 2-5. They lost their first 3 games by an average of 4 points, and could have won all 3 contests had the ball bounced a little differently. As it turned out, the Patriots weren't quite as good as their record, nor were Browns as bad as their record might have indicated, something that could have been determined pre-game had the quality of each win been factored into the equation.
Context of the Game
Each game is a discreet entity, but each week has its own special space in the context of the season. For the Patriots, the Browns game had all the hallmarks of a trap game. After 3 weeks of triumph and a seeming knack for winning close games in the fourth quarter, the Patriots were probably looking forward to next week's tilt with a powerhouse Pittsburgh squad, assuming they'd gut another close game with ball control and a few big plays against a bad Cleveland team.
Cleveland, on the other hand, had two things going in their favor heading into this game. First, they had just scored their first major victory of the season over the New Orleans Saints two weeks prior, giving their young team much-needed confidence after many early season setbacks. Second, they were coming off a bye week, something that undoubtedly gave them a renewed sense of focus and health coming into the game.
Chess Match
Football as much as any sport is affected by the quality of coaching and week-to-week strategy sessions. After the Browns win on Sunday, almost every player commented on the strength of Cleveland's game plan, with New England head coach Bill Belichick going as far as saying he was out-coached. While Belichick's reputation as a genius' is well-accepted these days, Cleveland's ability to out-strategize the genius was foreseeable, based on the aforementioned two weeks of preparation time, as well as head coach Eric Mangini's 9 years of experience under Belichick as an assistant coach. Not only was Mangini 3-1 as a head coach coming off a bye week, he knows New England better than anyone in the league and had 2 weeks to come up with a game plan. This game was tailor-made for a Cleveland victory.
Could Have Seen It Coming
Hindsight might be 20-20, but the biggest upset of Week 9 could have been predicted with a little research. Looking back, the Patriots weren't as good as their record, and at this point of their schedule they were prime for a letdown game against a team perceived to be bad. The Browns, after stumbling through some tough early season loses, weren't as bad as their record and at home coming off a bye with a head coach intimately familiar with their upcoming opponent, it should have been pretty clear that they had a good chance to come out victorious. And they did.
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