Netpicks 2011 Market Outlook Webinar Transcript Part 3
2011 NetPicks Market Outlook
2011 NetPicks Market Outlook
Transcript Part 3 of 7
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Mark Soberman: Okay. So yeah, so there was a question on account size, I think isnt a good idea so thats fine.
Brian Short: Yeah, roughly account size at least 25,000, 50,000 would be better --
Mark Soberman: All right. And then --
Brian Short: -- in that range.
Mark Soberman: Sorry, Brian. Yeah, symbol for silver?
Brian Short: As I know for silver, silver is SI.
Mark Soberman: Okay, and then trading platform for silver, TradeStation so I mean yeah. I mean you could do TradeStation. I can tell you right now, I chart mine on trade station and I traded at interactive brokers --
Brian Short: Yeah.
Mark Soberman: -- but you certainly can use NinjaTrader just fine so --
Brian Short: Im charting mine in TradeStation and I trade with Options Express.
Mark Soberman: Okay. All right. Well, there some more questions on silver, well try to get back to these as we go on. Ill kind of move along to Wills market outlook so, Will, its all you.
Will Feibel: Okay. Thank you, Mark. My market outlook, first lets just review 2010 and what worked is a whole bunch of stuff on the futures and on the Forex and what didnt worked is basically the same thing. So we saw this year whats pretty typical. We have periods of volatility followed by periods of consolidation and the Russell, crude, soybeans, they all did very well part of the year and then they didnt move well other parts of the and this is just typical trading.
Overall, I dont think this year has been atypical. Performance has been very good on the systems that I crate and lets look at 2011 what will be hot besides Angelina Jolie. Frankly, I dont know. Im not an economist. I did take Econ 101 back in college so I feel that qualifies me to point out a couple of macro considerations. I do think were in an economic recovery. Im not positive but Im pretty sure things are looking up gradually. We also have two years until the next election and I think thats a big factor. Uncertainty, whenever we have uncertainty, we have vol -- low volatility or consolidations in markets. We dont know which way price is going to move. I think with the fact that we do have the beginnings of an economic recovery and that were not going to be in a crazy period around elections for the next couple of years, I think a lot of that uncertainty has been resolved and we will see a return of volatility, greater volatility to the markets. Thats my macro predictions.
Now, Ill tell you what Im planning for 2011. I dont know whats going to be hot, as I said. But what I plan to do is to diversify both instruments and for me a big change is going to be the time frames. Ive been a day trader these past few years. I havent done any swing trading. I sat through the options course, Mike Rykse and Bob Hilt, and thats inspired me to get swing trading a shot.
The other thing Im going to do is Im going to follow my minimalist trading approach which I talked about at the owners web -- webinar back in December. There are several points associated with that but essentially it focuses on trading the volatile periods in the market and to stop trading as soon as you can when youre clearly in top. Specifically, this is my high level trade plan. Im going to trade three instruments starting out which I already do, as a matter of fact. One is crude and I trade crude on Renko bars. I use the HVMM method slightly modified. Its a five tick Renko bar and I only traded for half an hour. This is following that minimalist approach. I start at 8:50 and come hell or high water I stop at 9:20.
The next thing is I move in to the Russell. And on the Russell, Im also following the minimalist approach that I described in the December owners webinar. I used a Range bar of five. I used the HVMM method and I only trade that for half an hour. The third instrument that I day trade is soybeans and I have an 89 tick chart using the HVMM method. This is also just a half hour a day, 10:30 to 11:00, thats my entire focus. And although, soybeans started out the year pretty slow basically threading water, once we got into the September time frame and we started trading the November contract, soybeans took off again and its doing as well as it had in the previous two or three years. So thats on the day trading sides.
Swing trading, as I said, I intend to. I havent done my first trade yet but I want to trade options using the stock charts as a guide. And if you folks havent taken the course, the next time its offered, I strongly recommend the swing -- the options training presented by NetPicks. Its really an eye-opener. The system for swing trading is the SST and the time frames, the chart time frames, either 130 or 195-minute charts depending on the instrument and what youre back testing tells you.
Then a couple of things I want to look out for in the coming year, interest rate futures are used to do great a couple of years ago until the Fed brought rates down and we havent seen any adjustment to the Feds funds rate from a quarter percent in a while. I expect that will change. I expect as the economy continues to improve, the Fed may find itself finally moving rates. If that happens, I believe the interest rate futures will take off again. They were wonderful trading instruments and Im hoping theyll come back.
Gold and silver, Brian talked about that a whole bunch and the agriculturals. Im sorry, Keith, Coach Keith maybe will talk a little bit about wheat. Ive been trading soybeans for years now. I love these instruments. They have nice moves. You can focus your trading using a minimalist approach and you can do very well with very few trades. So thats my perspective. Thank you very much.
Mark Soberman: Great. Thanks, Will. I think one thing that you point out there with the interest rate futures, I remember a few years back, that was kind of one of the real hot areas that all of us were trading and its why we always kind of sort of bang that same drum that you have to follow a methodology where you can change markets. These things change. I mean its, you know, unfortunately, whatever were probably focusing on right now maybe different to some degree I would say by the end of 2011.
So what do you do between 10:00 and 10:30? I noticed on your trade plan you got that wide open 30 minutes?
Will Feibel: Breakfast.
Mark Soberman: Breakfast, good choice, good choice. And I also think -- I mean you could probably have some kind of like economic smack down since you took Econ 101 and so did I.
Will Feibel: There you go.
Mark Soberman: So, you know, one of these days I mean were going to do it. All right, I got a few questions for you.
Will Feibel: So whos next, Mark?
Mark Soberman: Weve got Keith and we have some questions for you.
Will Feibel: Okay.
Mark Soberman: How do you trade Renko bars, especially with all the unseen wicks?
Will Feibel: You know, there is a video on the HVMM site. I should put it on to the SST site. Essentially, what you have to do is you have to adjust all your entries, your stops and your targets to coincide with the Renko boundaries. And wherever your Renko bar is, at the moment, realize that it could move within one pip of the next brick up or one pip of the next brick down, so thats why you have to settle those stops, targets and entries at Renko boundaries. And if you do that, you can trade it. It gets a little bit more involved in that and Ill try to get that video up but its -- once you understand how Renko works, its very easy to trade. Its one of the easiest setups to identify. I dont even use the calculator when Im trading it. I just use the profit line and the other indicators.
Mark Soberman: Great. And then a question from -- several people are asking as we go and everybody is getting times. I assume this is the case, right? Well, youre getting Eastern New York time, correct?
Will Feibel: Yes, all New York time.
Mark Soberman: Yeah. We try to stay standardized on that when we talk times because we know that people are all over the place so if any of the coaches give a time and its not EST, well make sure that they make a note of that.
Will Feibel: Right. So right on the soybeans, the 10:30 was New York which is 9:30 Central Time which is the open for the soybeans.
Mark Soberman: Great. Andrew was asking, what was the options course you recommend? Its just the options live trading that Mike Rykse and Bob Malinowski put on. Theyre just finishing up right now so it will be offered out again at some point here and well get that to -- get you guys notified. So Keith -- Brian, I dont see Keith in the list. Is he -- did he have an issue of any sort?
Brian Short: No, hes here.
Mark Soberman: He is.
Will Feibel: Hes on the list.
Brian Short: Hes right there on the middle. Youve got him muted.
Mark Soberman: Oh, thats why. Oh, okay. Sorry I cant change presenter so maybe hes just mute, I dont know.
Will Feibel: I just past control to him.
Mark Soberman: Did you? Okay. Thanks.
Keith McKenzie: Do I have control?
Mark Soberman: Yes, you have the power.
Keith McKenzie: I have the power. Mark, are you going to put my presentation up or am I?
Mark Soberman: Oh, I had --
Will Feibel: Oh, were looking at your inbox right now.
Mark Soberman: Yeah, we see your inbox right now so --
Keith McKenzie: Oh, you see my inbox.
Mark Soberman: I can put up your slides if you prefer, thats fine.
Keith McKenzie: Yeah, why dont you do that?
Mark Soberman: Okay. All right. So lets see. Let me get that going for you real quick.
Keith McKenzie: Because I wasnt prepared for that. I thought youre going to do it for me.
Mark Soberman: Well, I think well hand it off to you. I was going to ask you first but thank you for getting it off and --
Keith McKenzie: Hello, everybody.
Mark Soberman: Theres a fumble. Okay. Here you go.
Keith McKenzie: It was a fumble. We had a fumble.
Mark Soberman: Yes.
Keith McKenzie: Which thats with me that sometimes happens.
Mark Soberman: Never mind. Just tell me when you want me to go advance. Im here to click.
Keith McKenzie: Okay. Youll figure it out.
Mark Soberman: Okay.
Keith McKenzie: All right. First of all, Im going to start off with my 2010 review. I dont have any real large predictions because Im a technical trader and thats what I do. I just hope that the market moves. If not, then I adjust. But looking back and reflecting on my 2010, way back in January, I was trading HVMM and I was trading crude oil and natural gas and doing rather well just segmented in from the simple two and the advance tactics. And that first of the year, I started trading the HVMM.
Then August came round. I was introduced to the SST and immediately started trading crude oil and one thing I started trailing one position and had great results. That was really helped my trading for the last half of the year. In September, I entered the wheat trade plan and as you guys know, Ive been following it. Its been working pretty good. In December, I added a silver trade plan and I kind of came up with my own. I was trading an eight range momentum bar but first of the year I converted over to a 233. The eight range momentum bar was just too slow and I was missing a lot of the moves that the 233 tick was giving me.
Next page. So currently, starting last week, Im trading the crude oil on the 377 tick chart and Im using the TJs Trade Plan. And I start that at 8:50, just like everybody else, and I am power quitting at two and positive. Then Im also trading silver starting at 8:00 on the 233 also using the default calculator and I am POQ on that. I havent -- even though a lot of times Im out there at almost 11:00, a lot of times Im done by 9:00 so I have to look at that Brians time frame. Ive also introduced the trading the one-day swing trade using the pound-U.S. dollar and the euro-U.S. dollar and the U.S. dollar-Yen. I love doing that. I like waking up in the morning having 160 or 120 pips of win over the night so Ive really been like a man. Ive also swing trading some stocks using options on the 195-minute chart. And like Brian, I am simplifying. Im kind of would limit right now my trading to two markets. Im going to keep the wheat plan in the bull pen. Im still going to track it. Ill still teach it. But right now, I got that on site.
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by: John Jay
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