Paddy Power Gold Cup

Paddy Power Gold Cup

Paddy Power Gold Cup

Paul Nicholls is normally the first point of call for spread bettors in the big Saturday races, but this is one of the few big prizes to have eluded him. His best chance this year again looks to be Poquelin who finished second 12 months ago before going on to land the Boylesports Gold Cup over the same course and distance a month later.

Nicky Henderson will be going all out to try to win the National Hunt trainer's championship this season and Long Run is one of his big hopes for the campaign. If he lines up in this race, he will almost certainly start at the top of the Sporting Index win index, but supporters of him on the spreads will be concerned that only one five-year-old has won this race in its 40-year history. That was Cyfor Malta who won this race before going on to take the Hennessy at Newbury later that month in 1998. His owner David Johnson has won this race a record six times and spread bettors expecting a seventh victory for the famous blue and green silks will be hoping his Great Endeavour can follow up his win at the Festival in March.

The Pipe family absolutely dominated this race at the turn of the Century with Martin Pipe winning five of the six runnings between 2000 and 2005. David has yet to win this race since he took over the reins, but Great Endeavour would be his main hope of securing a ninth win for the family.

SP sellers on the spreads will be hoping for a repeat of Shooting Light's win in 2001 when he was sent off at 9/4, the shortest priced winner in the race's history. Tranquil Sea was a big Irish race-day gamble last year which saw his price plummet to 11/2 favourite before the off. His victory meant that five of the past eleven favourites have been successful, which is a fairly decent ratio for spread SP sellers. Buyers, however, will be hoping for a repeat of Senor El Betrutti's win at 33/1 in 1997.

Although carrying 11 stone is by no means insurmountable (four of the last nine winners have done just that), spread punters will be interested to learn that only two top weights have managed to win in the past 16 years.

The winning distance market is always an interesting one for spread bettors on the day and Tranquil Sea came home 4 lengths in front 12 months ago. That is roughly the average for the past decade, but L'Antartique won by just a neck in 2007 and Lady Cricket scored by ten lengths in 2000.

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