Pick Winners to Bet at the Horse Races by Handicapping Speed and Pace

Pick Winners to Bet at the Horse Races by Handicapping Speed and Pace

Would you like to be able to pick winners at the horse races, but find the subject of handicapping very confusing? You're not alone. Trying to figure out which horse will win a race is very difficult. People who make a living by betting on horse races not only can tell you the likelihood, or probability of a horse winning a race, but also what odds the player needs in order to make a profit from a wager on that runner.

That is the real key to making money betting on horses. Before you can figure out the probability and odds relationship, however, you have to have a good idea of which horse is most likely to win. For that to happen you have to understand many factors, but the most important are pace and speed. Just betting the fastest horse in the race is not a way to make a profit. You'll win quite often, but because they are bet so heavily, you'll still lose money in the long run.

So, obviously, there is something else you must know in order to stay ahead, or at least to improve your game. The best way to at least come close to making a profit at gambling on horses is to be able to look at a race and figure out whether the fastest horses have a pace style that is suited for the race or whether they will be, as I call it, running against the grain, or bias.

The winner of most horse races comes from the top three horse's in the speed category. In other words, look at the speed figures for the last race of each runner and the top three will produce the winner anywhere from 65%-75% of the time. That is a big advantage. Just knowing that will put you on the right track.

Now look at the running styles of each horse. Each class and distance of races has its own peculiarities known as a race model. In other words, some races are usually won by early speed and a horse running within two lengths of the leader while others are won by horses who come from off the pace or even far back. Most good horse racing past performances tell you something about the race model for each race.

Here is where you start to understand how to use pace and speed. Look at the top three horses and see which ones have the best running style for the race. You may find situations where the horse with the fastest time in its last race matches the race model perfectly and is a real likely winner. You may also find situations where the opposite is true. Perhaps the fastest horse will not match the race model and will have to overcome a problem with pace.

In a case where a horse is clearly the fastest and also has a good running style to match the race, it will usually be over bet. Look for the second fastest horse or third fastest horse and see if there is any value in the pool. In the case of a fastest horse who doesn't match the race model, it still may be over bet creating a very good situation for another runner who has a style better suited for the race.

Just by comparing these two factors in any race you can often find a good bet and spot the likely winner who may not always be the favorite.

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