Professional Analyst: Electronic components industry into the winter
Professional Analyst: Electronic components industry into the winter
For China's electronic components industry, industry export slowdown and the impact of declining demand as a major force, into the winter of 2009, industry profits the industry will continue to decline. Analysts cautious recommendation on the industry as a whole.
Professional Analyst: Electronic components industry into the winter
Global semiconductor market growth compared with the global economic growth
(Source: SIA, IMF, Guotai Junan Securities Research Institute)
Professional Analyst: Electronic components industry into the winter
Export growth rate of domestic components industry situation
(Source: China Electronic Components Industry Network, Guotai Junan Securities Research Institute)
Cyclical adjustment of industry with the global economic fluctuations superimposed, will the 2009 global electronic components industry continues to boom degrees down. For China's electronic components industry, export slowdown and the impact of declining demand as a major power, coupled with deflation, the engine stalled capacity expansion, technological innovation is difficult to break through in 2009, industry profits will continue to decline. Analysts cautious recommendation on the industry as a whole, the industry can be properly concerned about possible M & A cases, and to grasp the outstanding performance of the sub-sector, technology innovation and strong stability of the leading stocks and strong demand for defense varieties.
Two-factor drag the industry down
Electronic components industry, the end product has the characteristics of cyclical consumer goods, the demand and fluctuations in the economy closely. Three quarters of the global electronics demand has declined. However, analysts generally agreed that, in addition to economic reasons, their cyclical adjustment is also test a low degree of industry an important factor in the economy, two factors led to this industry, time and magnitude of the adjustment is likely to exceed market expectations.
CSC analysts pointed out that the electronic manufacturing industry down since mid-2007 has shown, the smooth downward trend shows that this is a longer adjustment period; the financial crisis on the real economy accelerated in the industry recently downlink speed. Guotai Junan analysts also believe that the industry adjustment and cyclical fluctuations in the global economy superposition, will make 2009 the global electronics industry is facing a more complicated situation, only by industry self-regulation is difficult to achieve the supply of industrial re-balancing of supply and demand. Industry to continue down the space economy is still expected to adjust the current round of trade boom could last one to two years time.
CICC said, and the adjustment of the global electronics industry for 2001-2002 compared to the redundancy of this industry to adjust inventory only 40% in 2001, but demand is likely to decline rapidly after the first downturn last longer, and in 2005 After the global electronics industry has entered a single-digit growth, maturity, less technological innovation, so the adjustment time may still need 2 years. But analysts also suggested that taking into account the inventory is not, and nations compete to introduce policies to stimulate the economy may be reflected in the second half of 2009, so the second half of 2009, the electronics industry's peak season is expected to show a certain characteristic, but not enough to change the economic and industry downward trend.
Domestic demand and exports are subject to impact
By the global economic crisis, slowing China's electronics exports, sluggish domestic demand is also growing. Weak end demand for domestic electronic components industry constitutes a large impact.
First of all, with the further decline in the global economy, domestic exports of electronic products will fall into a bleak future. Southwest Securities analyst pointed out that the economic crisis on the global economy, especially the impact of European and American countries continues to deteriorate, the large proportion of domestic exports of electronic components industry in terms of improving themselves, a number of leading enterprises in the third quarter results for the downward trend has emerged. Great Wall Securities analyst also noted that the components manufacturers in China's high export dependence, in recent years, China's exports of electronic equipment manufacturing industry share increasing annually in the state, an electronic device, PCB and magnetic three sub-sectors the first half of 2008, the proportion of all exports over 50%. As the global financial crisis eroded the real economy, exports of electronic terminal decline, China's January-October export value of electronic information manufacturing industry growth rate of 14.3% over the second quarter fell 5.3%, which will directly affect the upstream component industry needs.
Second, the economic crisis will reduce domestic residents consumer electronic products. CICC that although the Chinese government to stimulate domestic demand to stimulate the economy is the primary task, but as most of the optional electronic products, consumer goods, consumer outlook for 2009 is not optimistic. Disposable income of domestic residents slowdown in Q3 2008, the disposable income of urban residents in the actual growth was only 7.5%, down from 11.9% in 2007, also lower than 8.5% in 2001. Meanwhile, the stock market and real estate prices continued to slump, people with assets of the wealth effect from the 2007's is becoming negative in 2008, is expected to be difficult into being in 2009. In addition, the real estate market downturn has reduced demand for new electronic products. According to statistics, China's electronic consumer goods retail sales growth has begun to decline.
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