The Polish Defense Sector - Market Opportunities And Entry Strategies, Analyses And Forecasts
Summary
Summary
This report offers insights into the market opportunities and entry strategies adopted by foreign OEMs
(original equipment manufacturers) to gain a market share in the Polish defense industry. In
particular, it offers in-depth analysis of the following:
Market opportunity and attractiveness: detailed analysis of the current industry size and
growth expectations during 20102015, including highlights of the key growth stimulators. It also
benchmarks the industry against key global markets and provides detailed understanding of
emerging opportunities in specific areas.
Procurement dynamics: trend analysis of imports and exports, together with its implications and impact on the Polish defense industry.
Industry structure: five forces analysis to identify various power centers in the industry and how these are likely to develop in the future.
Market entry strategy: analysis of possible ways to enter the market, together with detailed descriptions of how existing players have entered the market, including key contracts, alliances, and strategic initiatives.
Competitive landscape and strategic insights: analysis of competitive landscape of the defense industry in Poland. It provides an overview of key defense companies (both domestic and foreign), together with insights such as key alliances, strategic initiatives, and a brief financial analysis.
Business environment and country risk: a range of drivers at country level, assessing business environment and country risk. It covers historical and forecast values for a range of indicators, evaluating business confidence, economic performance, infrastructure quality and
availability, labor force, demographics, and political and social risk.
Scope
analysis of Defense industry market size from 2004 through 2009 and forecasts till 2015
analysis of defense budget allocation
Benchmarking with key global markets
Market opportunities
Defense procurement dynamics
Industry dynamics
Market entry strategy
Competitive landscape and strategic insights
Business environment and country risk
Reasons To Buy
Gain insight into Polish defense industry with current, historic and forecast market values
Get insight on market opportunity and attractiveness
Get insight on industry procurement dynamics
Gain insight on industry structure
Gain insight into the regulations governing the Polish defense industry and the potential market entry strategies with an expert analysis of the competitive structure
Identify top companies of the Polish defense industry along with profiles of all those companies
Key Highlights
Polands military expenditure is estimated to value US$8.2 billion in 2010, and its defense market is the largest in Central Europe. During the review period, defense expenditure has grown at a CAGR of 11.35%, and during the forecast period is expected to record a CAGR of 8.48%, to reach a value of US$12.4 billion by 2015. Currently, the Polish defense industry is undergoing a defense infrastructure modernization phase, due to which the nations military expenditure is expected to continue to rise over the forecast period. Furthermore, the combination of a strained relationship with Russia, several Polish peacekeeping missions and strong economic growth forecast, will drive defense expenditure over the forecast period.
Over the review period, the average capital expenditure allocation of the total defense budget was 20% and revenue expenditure allocation 80%; however the average share of capital expenditure is expected to increase to approximately 23% during the forecast period. The Polish governments initiatives to replace obsolete defense equipment and reduce troop size are significant contributing factors to capital expenditure increase.
Keywords
Defense, Poland, BAE Systems, The Boeing Company, Lockheed Martin, MBDA, Sikorsky Aircraft Corporation, Bumar Group, Huta Stalowa Wola, Zaklady Metalowe MESKO, WSK PZL Mielec, Radwar, Wojskowe Zakady Uzbrojenia S.A., Zaklady Mechaniczne Tarnow, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Table of Contents :
1 Introduction
1.1 About this Report
1.2 Definitions
1.3 Methodology
1.3.1 Secondary research
1.3.2 Primary research
1.3.3 Conventions
1.4 ICD Research Terrorism Index
1.5 About ICD Research Defense Intelligence Center
2 Executive Summary
3 Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities
3.1 Defense Market Size and Forecast
3.1.1 Polish defense expenditure expected to grow at a CAGR of 8.48% during the forecast period
3.1.2 Modernization initiatives, tensions with Russia, strong economic growth and peacekeeping missions to fuel defense expenditure
3.2 Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation
3.2.1 Share of capital expenditure expected to increase during the forecast period
3.2.2 Investment in military intelligence services and crisis response operations expected to increase
3.2.3 Polish army defense expenditure to grow at a CAGR of 8.48% during the forecast period
3.2.4 Naval expenditure estimated to grow at a CAGR of 7.63% over the forecast period
3.2.5 Poland expected to invest US$2.9 billion in air force modernization during the forecast period
3.2.6 Combined categories of army support, crisis response operations, and command and control of armed forces expected to continue to constitute majority of defense budget
3.2.7 Polish defense budget positively correlates to countrys economic growth
3.2.8 Defense expenditure, as a percentage of GDP, expected to increase over the forecast period
3.3 Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast
3.3.1 Polish homeland security market worth US$160.2 million in 2009
3.3.2 Homeland security expenditure to be fueled by the countrys efforts to counter organized crime
3.3.3 Poland faces no known threat from terrorist organizations
3.4 Benchmarking with Key Global Markets
3.4.1 Poland emerges as one of the countries with the largest military expenditure in Central Europe
3.4.2 Poland faces no known threat from foreign terrorist organnizations
3.5 Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Growth Stimulators
3.5.1 Polish air force expected to procure advanced trainer jets and helicopters
3.5.2 Demand for communication systems expected to increase
3.5.3 Modernization of naval defense forces will drive maritime equipment demand
3.5.4 Surveillance and detection system expenditure expected to increase
4 Defense Procurement Market Dynamics
4.1 Import Market Dynamics
4.1.1 Defense imports registered a decline in 2009
4.1.2 Poland plans to diversify arms imports
4.1.3 Aircraft and missiles are the largest imported military hardware
4.2 Export Market Dynamics
4.2.1 Polish defense exports grow at a moderate pace
4.2.2 Poland exports the majority of its defense goods to Asia
4.2.3 Armored vehicles and missile defense systems constitute the majority of Polish defense exports
5 Industry Dynamics
5.1 Five Forces Analysis
5.1.1 Bargaining power of supplier: low
5.1.2 Bargaining power of buyer: high
5.1.3 Barrier to entry: medium
5.1.4 Intensity of rivalry: high
5.1.5 Threat of substitution: high
6 Market Entry Strategy
6.1 Market Regulation
6.1.1 Polish government encourages offsets in order to develop the countrys defense industrial base
6.2 Market Entry Route
6.2.1 Acquisition and joint ventures with domestic companies constitute preferred entry routes
6.2.2 Foreign OEMs gain industry access through joint research and development programs
6.3 Key Challenges
6.3.1 Stringent offset policy discourages foreign OEMs from entering the industry
6.3.2 Lack of transparency in the public procurement process proves a major challenge
7 Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights
7.1 Competitive Landscape Overview
7.2 Key Foreign Companies
7.2.1 BAE Systems: overview
7.2.2 BAE Systems: product focus
7.2.3 BAE Systems: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.2.4 BAE Systems: alliances
7.2.5 BAE Systems: recent contract wins
7.2.6 BAE Systems: financial analysis
7.2.7 The Boeing Company: overview
7.2.8 The Boeing Company: product focus
7.2.9 The Boeing Company: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.2.10 The Boeing Company: alliances
7.2.11 The Boeing Company: recent contract wins
7.2.12 The Boeing Company: financial analysis
7.2.13 Lockheed Martin: overview
7.2.14 Lockheed Martin: product focus
7.2.15 Lockheed Martin: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.2.16 Lockheed Martin: alliances
7.2.17 Lockheed Martin: recent contract wins
7.2.18 Lockheed Martin: financial analysis
7.2.19 MBDA: overview
7.2.20 MBDA: product focus
7.2.21 MBDA: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.2.22 MBDA: alliances
7.2.23 MBDA: recent contract wins
7.2.24 MBDA: financial analysis
7.2.25 Sikorsky Aircraft Corporation: overview
7.2.26 Sikorsky Aircraft Corporation: product focus
7.2.27 Sikorsky Aircraft Corporation: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.2.28 Sikorsky Aircraft Corporation: alliances
7.2.29 Sikorsky Aircraft Corporation: recent contract wins
7.2.30 Sikorsky Aircraft Corporation: financial analysis
7.3 Key Domestic Companies
7.3.1 Bumar Group: overview
7.3.2 Bumar Group: products and services
7.3.3 Bumar Group: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.3.4 Bumar Group: alliances
7.3.5 Bumar Group: recent contract wins
7.3.6 Bumar Group: financial analysis
7.3.7 Huta Stalowa Wola: overview
7.3.8 Huta Stalowa Wola: products and services
7.3.9 Huta Stalowa Wola: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.3.10 Huta Stalowa Wola: alliances
7.3.11 Huta Stalowa Wola: recent contract wins
7.3.12 Huta Stalowa Wola: financial analysis
7.3.13 Zaklady Metalowe MESKO: overview
7.3.14 Zaklady Metalowe MESKO: products and services
7.3.15 Zaklady Metalowe MESKO: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.3.16 Zaklady Metalowe MESKO: alliances
7.3.17 Zaklady Metalowe MESKO: recent contract wins
7.3.18 Zaklady Metalowe MESKO: financial analysis
7.3.19 WSK PZL Mielec: overview
7.3.20 WSK PZL Mielec: products and services
7.3.21 WSK PZL Mielec: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.3.22 WSK PZL Mielec: alliances
7.3.23 WSK PZL Mielec: recent contract wins
7.3.24 WSK PZL Mielec: financial analysis
7.3.25 Radwar: overview
7.3.26 Radwar: product focus
7.3.27 Radwar: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.3.28 Radwar: alliances
7.3.29 Radwar: recent contract wins
7.3.30 Radwar: financial analysis
7.3.31 Wojskowe Zakady Uzbrojenia S.A.: overview
7.3.32 Wojskowe Zakady Uzbrojenia S.A.: product focus
7.3.33 Wojskowe Zakady Uzbrojenia S.A.: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.3.34 Wojskowe Zakady Uzbrojenia S.A.: alliances
7.3.35 Wojskowe Zakady Uzbrojenia S.A: recent contract wins
7.3.36 Wojskowe Zakady Uzbrojenia S.A: financial analysis
7.3.37 Zaklady Mechaniczne Tarnow: overview
7.3.38 Zaklady Mechaniczne Tarnow: products and services
7.3.39 Zaklady Metalowe MESKO: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.3.40 Zaklady Mechaniczne Tarnow: alliances
7.3.41 Zaklady Mechaniczne Tarnow: recent contract wins
7.3.42 Zaklady Mechaniczne Tarnow: financial analysis
8 Business Environment and Country Risk
8.1 Business Confidence
8.1.1 Business Confidence Index
8.1.2 Market Capitalization Trend The Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE), Poland
8.1.3 FDI Inflows by Sector
8.1.4 Deployment of Credit by Sector
8.2 Economic Performance
8.2.1 GDP at Constant Prices
8.2.2 GDP per Capita at Constant Prices
8.2.3 GDP at Current Prices
8.2.4 GDP Per Capita at Current Prices
8.2.5 GDP Split by Key Segments
8.2.6 Agriculture Agriculture Output Value at Current Prices (Local Currency)
8.2.7 Agriculture Agriculture Output Value at Current Prices (US Dollar)
8.2.8 Agriculture Agriculture Output at Current Prices as Percentage of GDP
8.2.9 Manufacturing Manufacturing Output at Current Prices (Local Currency)
8.2.10 Manufacturing Manufacturing Output at Current Prices (US Dollar)
8.2.11 Manufacturing Manufacturing Output-Current Prices as Percentage of GDP
8.2.12 Manufacturing Mining, Manufacturing, and Utilities at Current Prices (Local Currency)
8.2.13 Manufacturing Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities at Current Prices (US Dollars)
8.2.14 Manufacturing Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities at Current Prices, as Percentage of GDP
8.2.15 Construction Construction Output at Current Prices, (Local Currency)
8.2.16 Construction Construction Output-Current Prices
8.2.17 Construction Construction Output-Current Prices as a % of GDP
8.2.18 Industry - Crude Steel Production
8.2.19 Industry - Crude Oil Consumption
8.2.20 Inflation Rate
8.2.21 Fiscal Deficit as a Percentage of GDP
8.2.22 Trade Balance as a Percentage of GDP
8.2.23 Exports as a Percentage of GDP
8.2.24 Imports as a Percentage of GDP
8.2.25 Exports Growth
8.2.26 Imports Growth
8.2.27 External Debt as Percentage of GDP
8.2.28 Exchange Rate USD-PLN (Annual Average)
8.2.29 Exchange Rate USD-PLN (End of Fiscal)
8.2.30 Debt Service Ratio
8.3 Infrastructure Quality and Availability
8.3.1 Transport Total Airports and Ports
8.3.2 Transport Highways and Railways
8.3.3 Transport - Passenger Vehicle Production Volume
8.3.4 Transport - Commercial Vehicle Production Volume
8.3.5 Transport - Automotive Components Export Trend
8.3.6 Transport - Automotive Products Import Trend
8.3.7 Transport - Passenger Car Penetration
8.3.8 Utilities - Total Installed Capacity for Electricity Generation
8.3.9 Utilities - Installed Capacity for Conventional Thermal Electricity Generation
8.3.10 Utilities - Electricity Production
8.3.11 Utilities - Installed Capacity for Hydro-electricity Generation
8.3.12 Utilities - Installed Capacity for Renewable Electricity Generation
8.3.13 Utilities - Electric Power Consumption
8.3.14 Utilities Electricity Exports
8.3.15 Utilities Electricity Imports
8.3.16 Healthcare - Healthcare Expenditure
8.3.17 Healthcare - Healthcare Expenditure as % GDP
8.3.18 Healthcare - Healthcare Expenditure Per Capita
8.3.19 Technology R&D Expenditure as a percentage of GDP
8.3.20 Communication - Total Internet Subscribers
8.3.21 Communication - Broadband Internet Subscribers
8.3.22 Communication - Personal Computer penetration
8.3.23 Communication Mobile Phone Penetration Rate
8.4 Labor Force
8.4.1 Labor Force
8.4.2 Unemployment Rate
8.5 Demographics
8.5.1 Annual Disposable Income
8.5.2 Annual Per Capita Disposable Income
8.5.3 Annual Consumer Expenditure on Food
8.5.4 Annual Per Capita Consumer Expenditure on Food
8.5.5 Urban and Rural Population
8.5.6 Female as Percentage of Population
8.5.7 Male as Percentage of Population
8.5.8 Mean Age of Population
8.5.9 Median Age of Population
8.5.10 Population Density
8.5.11 Age Distribution Total Population
8.5.12 Age Distribution-Male Population
8.5.13 Age Distribution-Female Population
8.5.14 No. of Households
8.6 Political and Social Risk
8.6.1 Political Stability
8.6.2 Terrorism Index
8.6.3 Transparency Index
List of Tables
Table 1: ICD Research Defense Terrorism Index
Table 2: Polish Defense Offset Regulations
Table 3: Offset multiplier categories
Table 4: Market Entry Strategies by Key Foreign Companies
Table 5: Competitive Landscape of the Polish Defense Industry
Table 6: BAE Systems Plc Alliances
Table 7: The Boeing Company Alliances
Table 8: Lockheed Martin Alliances
Table 9: Lockheed Martin Recent Contract Wins
Table 10: MBDA Alliances
Table 11: Sikorsky Aircraft Corporation Alliances
Table 12: Bumar Group Alliances
Table 13: Bumar Recent Contract Wins
Table 14: Huta Stalowa Wola - Alliances
Table 15: Huta Stalowa Wola - Recent Contract Wins
Table 16: Radwar - Alliances
Table 17: Wojskowe Zakady Uzbrojenia S.A. Alliances
List of Figures
Figure 1: Polish Defense Market Size (US$ Billion), 200415F
Figure 2: Polish Defense Budget Allocation for Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 200415F
Figure 3: Polish Defense Expenditure Allocation (%), 200415F
Figure 4: Polish Army Defense Budget (US$ million), 200415F
Figure 5: Polish Naval Defense Budget (US$ Million), 200415F
Figure 6: Polish Air Force Defense Budget (US$ Million), 200415F
Figure 7: Polish Defense Budget for Other Categories (US$ Billion), 200415F
Figure 8: Polish Defense Expenditure vs. GDP Growth Rate (%), 200515F
Figure 9: Polish Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP (%), 200415F
Figure 10: ICD Research Terrorism Heat Map
Figure 11: ICD Research Defense Terrorism Index
Figure 12: Benchmarking with Key Global Markets Historical vs. Expected Defense Budget Growth
Figure 13: Defense Expenditure of the Largest Military Spenders in the World (US$ billion), 2009 and 2015F
Figure 14: Defense Expenditure as a percentage of GDP of Countries with the Largest Military Expenditure (%), 2009
Figure 15: Polish Defense Imports (US$ Million), 200409
Figure 16: Polish Defense Imports by Country (%), 200409 and 2009
Figure 17: Polish Defense Imports by Category (%), 200409, 2009
Figure 18: Polish Defense Exports (US$ million), 200409*
Figure 19: Polish Defense Exports by Country (%), 200409 and 2009
Figure 20: Polish Defense Exports by Category (%), 200409 and 2009
Figure 21 Industry Dynamics Porters Five Forces Analysis
Figure 22: Poland Business Confidence Index, 2009-10
Figure 23: The Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE) Market Capitalization, 2003-09
Figure 24: Poland FDI Inflows by Sector (US$ billion), 2003-09
Figure 25: Poland Deployment of Credit by Sector (US$ billion), 2003-09
Figure 26: Poland GDP Value at Constant Prices, 2003-15F
Figure 27: Poland GDP Per Capita at Constant Prices, 2003-15F
Figure 28: Poland GDP at Current Prices, 2003-15F
Figure 29: Poland GDP Per Capita at Current Prices, 2003-15F
Figure 30: Poland GDP Split by Key Segments 2003 Vs 2009
Figure 31: Poland Agriculture Output Value at Current Prices (Local Currency), 2003-09
Figure 32: Poland Agriculture Output Value at Current Prices (US$), 2003-09
Figure 33: Poland Agriculture Output at Current Prices as a percentage of GDP, 2003-15F
Figure 34: Poland Manufacturing Output at Current Prices (Local Currency), 2003-15F
Figure 35: Poland Manufacturing Output at Current Prices (US$), 2003-15F
Figure 36: Poland Manufacturing Output at Current Prices as a percentage of GDP, 2003-15F
Figure 37: Poland Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output, at Current Prices (Local Currency), 2003-15F
Figure 38: Poland Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output, at Current Prices (US$), 2003-15F
Figure 39: Poland Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output, at Current Prices as a percentage of GDP, 2003-15F
Figure 40: Poland Construction Output, at Current Prices (Local Currency), 2003-15F
Figure 41: Poland Construction Output, at Current Prices (US$), 2003-15F
Figure 42: Poland Construction Output, at Current Prices as a percentage of GDP, 2003-15F
Figure 43: Poland Crude Steel Production, 2003-15F
Figure 44: Poland Crude Oil Consumption, 2003-15F
Figure 45: Poland Inflation Rate, 2003-15F
Figure 46: Poland Fiscal Deficit as
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