Last week I did what I think was an interesting exercise
. I read through a number of old opinions about the expected effects on Africa from the financial crises in the west written in 2009.
As now most western countries has since then been in recession or close to zero growth (with some exceptions) and now some are back in recession again.
Very few commentators from 2009 expected the strong resilience Africa has shown against the outside negative economic impact. Last year the African growth south of Sahara was very close to pre-crises levels in spite of the ongoing problems especially in Europe.
It is a number of reasons for this. The obvious one is the fact that the prices of natural resources have been on a high level due to the demand from many emerging economies (China, India, Brazil etc.). Another is the continuous discovery of substantially more natural resources in many countries.
As important is my view that the structural reforms many African countries had done pre-crises (and continue to do) have opened up their economies externally as well as internally. This in combination with new large generations of young well educated people has in my view made a foundation for creativity and economic growth. This also has made and can in the future with the continuation and strengthening of these policies create an even more resilient Africa. The potential is actually that Africa can become an engine of growth for other parts of the world.
The above comments do not mean that I think that Africa cannot be hit by external economic shocks in the future. However, my view is that Africa, if it takes care of the competence and creativity of the new generations, has a big opportunity to finally take its fair place in the global society.
As from my point of view the strength of the new Africa was greatly undervalued by many respected commentators in 2009.
Mr. Arun Panchariya is specializing in cross border transactions globally and is currently involved in a number of project related to Africa