The U.s. Unemployment Rate Rose To 9.9% Chance Of The World Economy Bottom Up Secondary

Although the euro zone leaders last Friday formally approved the aid scheme in Greece

, but Europe and the United States financial market turmoil continue, the pan-European Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index fell 8.7% last week, the highest since November 21, 2008 the highest since the week of decline. The United States recently announced in April the unemployment rate increased to 9.9%, higher than the market expected 9.7%, the United States the week the Dow fell 5.7%, Nasdaq down 8%. Market that the world economy and further increase the probability of secondary bottom, the impact of Chinese exports affected by the fastest reflected next month.

European debt crisis is far from in the end?

Citigroup chief economist of China Peng Cheng interviewed yesterday said that the debt crisis is far from Europe to the end of time. Portugal, Spain, Ireland has a very similar debt problems in Greece, the current IMF, and the EU agreed to loan 110 billion euros to help tide over the crisis in the Greek idea is unrealistic. First, the rescue program prerequisites, Greece must be implemented in the country has received much resistance to the austerity program. According to statistics, even if access to this assistance, its debt to GDP ratio also increased and peaked in 2013, was 149.1%.

"Economic downturn, there is no income growth, the deficit may subside then how?" Peng Cheng that "Greece is a must and will certainly be debt restructuring, if Greece can not be achieved financial sustainability. But regrettably, market or wish to avoid the debt relief measures, a series of restructuring. "

Good preparation for the crisis intensified

Well-known economist Andy Xie said the government when stimulated lead to inflation, interest rates must rise, which would lead to the global economy bottom again, this time could be 2012. The Galaxy Securities chief economist Zuo Xiaolei said the outbreak of the Greek sovereignty over the crisis, in fact, is to force the EU to save the program on the sovereignty of EU member states must fully address the debt crisis of no return, to Portugal, Ireland, Italy, the problem show before the crisis can be seen at the bottom.

Anaphalis chief economist at Standard Chartered Bank thought that: "To make Greece the second round of the future impact of the crisis on the mental preparation. If the aid program will help Greece out of difficulties, it was undoubtedly the most likely to be affected by European banks . Some Asian economies are likely to be the Greek crisis, but in view of other capital flows to Asia and other emerging economies, so the impact may be limited. "

European debt crisis on the export of China's influence appears to reduce signs of hot money flows

Impact of a

Heavy blow to exports to the EU

Chinese exports to Europe accounted for 20% of the total export volume, its status than the U.S. market is also large. Since December 2009 has been the real exchange rate of RMB against the euro has appreciated more than 15%. The profits of Chinese exporters is about 10%, the mean number of exporters, if prices can not be successful if its profits have gone, if the situation of insufficient demand price increases, Chinese goods in the EU can imagine what kind of difficulties encountered . Provincial Economic and Trade Department official said, the debt crisis in Europe the impact on Chinese exports the data as early as next month there will be reflected. Export will transfer back home to the real economy and financial markets.

Impact on the

Some funds or accelerating out of China

Peng Cheng believes that the European debt crisis led to increased global risk aversion, capital coming back to U.S. dollars. In addition, the European funds had around the world are returning European emergency needs. Dual factors, some funds out of China will accelerate.

Last American debt crises, by the end of 2008 to early 2009 half year, China's 200 billion U.S. dollars of hot money outflow. This situation also occurs in China right now. But volume is not expected than last major.

In the first quarter foreign exchange reserves increased 47.9 billion U.S. dollars, while one-quarter trade surplus was 14.49 billion U.S. dollars, a quarter of China's direct investment 23.44 billion U.S. dollars. A quarter of foreign reserves - the trade surplus - direct investment = 9.97 billion U.S. dollars. Also understand the general sense that the hot money is still in the first quarter reached 9.97 billion U.S. dollars into China as much, but less than in December last year, 12.1 billion outflow of hot money in China. In addition, only the second quarter of 2009, the scale of hot money into China reached 100 billion U.S. dollars.

The impact of Chinese-funded banks is small, because the Chinese banks lending in Europe are very small.

States to rescue

Japan Youxiang market an emergency capital injection

By the U.S. and European financial turmoil, Bank of Japan (BOJ) 7, announced today the banks, securities firms and other financial transactions in real time the short-term financial markets, injected 2 trillion yen (about 153.4 billion yuan). This is the second in Dubai last December after the crisis, the Bank for emergency funding to the market again.

The euro area at a crossroad

BNP Paribas and Citigroup analysts said, "This will prompt the European Central Bank may seek to avoid the market again in 2008 as the turmoil. The European Central Bank needs to soften the previously announced first step to gradually reduce liquidity position."

Lee Anaphalis think that a large sovereign state unless the political alliance, or the monetary union can not continue.

by: gaga

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