The way ahead

The way ahead

The way ahead

Introduction

I have carried out a research project into what our industrial civilization, which I call Tityas, has done to its life support system in Gaia, and so what the prognosis is. Every system installed in Tityas has a limited life and uses irreplaceable natural capital in its operation and maintenance. Consequently, the demise of Tityas is inevitable and the surviving human population will have a hard time making do with what nature has left to offer, especially as the services provided by Tityas will no longer be available. They can only make decisions about what natural forces are put to work by whatever tools remain. These natural forces have been in control of what happens for eons and this process will continue whatever we do. And there are limits to these activities for Tityas. Technology can only make use of some of these natural forces. The potential must exist in oil, gas, coal resources, ore bodies, water catchments, river flows, fertile soils, ocean chemistry and manageable climate for some activity to take place.

The findings of the research are recorded in my book, What went wrong? The misdirection of civilization. This is a long, educational text for the concerned, curious young intellectuals. It separates the decisions made by humans from the consequences due to the use of natural forces in the construction, operation and maintenance of Tityas. There is a broad spectrum of people and the majority has little influence on what happens to Tityas. The book discusses the penalty of using up irreplaceable natural wealth to produce the transient materialistic wealth of society, which is Tityas and its capabilities. The cultural wealth of society stems largely from the people using facilities provided by Tityas. The materialistic wealth is not to be confused with financial wealth. The book brings out the inability of money to influence the wear and tear on the systems of Tityas caused by these natural forces. It provides understanding of what has happened and what will happen that is beyond the ken of most people at this stage. Those who are prepared to obtain this understanding will be in a much better position to provide guidance to family and friends in their community. The majority of people, however, are likely only to belatedly respond to the stark reality, largely because prices go up. However, price increases hit the poorest hardest. The middle classes are still enthralled in consumptionitis so making the coming powering down more traumatic. They are not yet ready to take their medicine! And the rich have the leverage to continue to play their money games.

A natural question is why is there not greater awareness amongst people of the consequences of the systems of Tityas using up natural capital. They are conditioned to believe in the economic growth driven by money. There are, as yet, few signs from nature to dispel that delusion. The fact is that natural forces only occasionally belatedly and slowly respond to what our technology does to natural capital. The changing climate due to the emissions from fossil fuel burning is one example of a response by nature and there is growing awareness of this factor. There are weak moves to mitigate climate change, primarily by slowing down the rate of emissions from fossil fuels. Little is being done, however, to adapt to the irreversible rapid change already under way. The decline in soil fertility is not having a noticeable impact, yet, because of the use of artificial fertilizers. The use of oil does not cause any significant natural response although exploration and exploitation are becoming more difficult as the amount remaining declines. And the price of fuel is not yet higher enough to get a significant response from humans! The Deepwater Horizon spill is more a failure of technology and human capabilities than a response by natural forces. It is attracting a lot of publicity because of its location. The lack of awareness of the decline of natural wealth is largely due to human ignorance of physical reality. Many specialists have insight into what has happened in their fields but these views have not registered. It is unwise to rely on isolated natural responses to wake society in general up because it is then too late to implement effective remedial action! But that is what is happening. Society is still enthralled by the usefulness of money, the hallucination of prosperity and wondering where happiness went as they strive to make good'.

The global financial crisis has fostered comment by authorities about the likelihood of the developing global social unrest growing rapidly. They refer to what happened in the Great Depression without recognizing that the situation is very different now. There are a lot more people in many more, bigger cities. Consequently, there is a much greater demand on the environment and natural goods and services. These authorities' see the problems stemming from financial considerations alone! There is appreciable uncertainty about how much impact the overloading of the environment by the ravishing of the massive population is contributing to the current chaos. However, there is no rational reason for ignoring this factor entirely. But that is what authorities' are doing as they concentrate on the impact of capitalism and the disruption caused by credit.

It is fascinating that the only way that humans can become aware of the coming demise of Tityas is by using their cleverness to diagnose the nature of the holistic malaise. Nature will only belatedly provide some symptoms. Unfortunately, the powerful in our community are too engrossed in their pursuit of money to think through what Tityas was built up from and that it cannot possibly be maintained as its sustenance runs out. How many ever even think about how rapidly the limited amount of oil is declining!

Future generations will have to face the challenge of making the best possible use of the remaining natural capital even as Tityas disintegrates. I have produced a spreadsheet as a means of examining the trends in the development of Tityas and the future prospects. The International Professors Project Senescence of civilization' group has the objective of developing this spreadsheet into a credible transparent tool for use by concerned, knowledgeable people. It welcomes those who wish to contribute their specialist know how. It could well make a significant contribution to endeavors to embrace worthwhile measures for the powering down process in coming decades. It will, however, make little difference to the eventual demise of Tityas. The irreversible use of natural capital will continue almost unabated. There is too much inertia, especially in the developed countries. There is too much momentum down the unsustainable path in the developing countries. The best that society can do is to make more worthwhile use of the remaining natural capital when they wake up!

Let us be clear about what is the dominant paradigm of educated society today. It is the belief in the power of money. They think technology will always address developing problems. They are addicted to the prosperity it has brought about. They enjoy the benefits of the wealth that has been created. They are like the dedicated smoker who does not care to think about the possible consequences. The soothing and social benefits of smoking are all that matters to them. Very few people have gone to the trouble of thinking outside of the box, so gaining some understanding of the factors governing what is happening. They realize that the day-by-day operations of Tityas and its population of humans always entail the irreversible consumption of the limited natural capital. It is ironic that the flow of money has absolutely no impact on that fundamental principle. Some smokers learn a harsh lesson when they get lung cancer. All of society will have to learn a harsh lesson as Tityas irrevocably ages, but they will only slowly learn it in the coming decades! Some technology may provide a worthwhile balm but it cannot cure the holistic malfeasance.

Some concerns

You may well be concerned but you are not in the position of being able to think through the arguments in the book. You have a mindset based upon conventional education and the experience of a growing economy powered by money. There are, however, some simple points that when you think about them will make it easier to accept that society is unable to understand the stark reality that Tityas has grown to its present size by feasting on the limited natural capital available from Gaia, so it is in to its senescence.

There are two issues. The running and life of Tityas is one. How people use the capabilities of Tityas and natural income is the other. The focus in this essay is on how people best use these capabilities even as they decline. Understanding of what is happening to Tityas will help you make sound decisions. So there is a need to discuss what is happening to Tityas even though you can have virtually no influence on that happens to this vast organism. You and I are just pawns in the tug-o-war between the ravishing Tityas and the resilient Gaia.

The central point in the other issue is the provision of adequate food, potable water and sanitation for the population. The goods and services provided by Tityas have an influence on what is provided but natural income from fertile soil, the hydrological cycle etc. are the fundamental inputs. There is an inter-dependence between natural capital and natural income for these needs that is continually developing. This second issue is minor compared to the first in developed communities and it is not examined in this essay.

World Environment Day is encouraging wider recognition of the problems created by too many people using natural resources. It conveys the common impression that people are doing all the devastation when the reality is that the systems of Tityas are doing most of the damage. People are just making bad decisions while using natural income to meet basic needs, including some of the food. United Nations studies show that it takes one year and five months to regenerate what the current world population uses of natural income in one year. Footprint science is relatively simple. It measures how much productive land it takes to create the food, housing and goods people consume each year. It is quite terrifying that a body such as the UN fosters such a ridiculous outlook. There is some regeneration' in the land but that covers a minuscule part of what is being used. Most of what Tityas uses is irreplaceable and the damage done is irreversible. This misleading view should be borne in considering the arguments presented in this essay.

Oil plays a major role in the operation of the systems of Tityas. It provides most of the fuel used in ground, sea and land transportation. About half the global stock of that irreplaceable component of natural capital has been used up in the past century. It is hard to imagine what transportation systems will be available to meet the needs of the population when oil becomes really scarce in the near future. Some alternative cars are being developed and will meet a little of the future demand. Trucks, airliners and container vessels continue to be produced at a rate that suggests the company CEOs have no more clues than the proponents of everlasting economic growth. Mining companies feast on the supposedly bountiful natural resources, such as iron ore, even though the fuels needed to do this hard work are becoming scarce. It seems that these powerful people have a myopic view of the needs of the well-endowed section of society and do not care about the welfare of the masses or the consequences of the ravaging by their companies.

The Deepwater Horizon disaster is an indication of how desperate the oil industry has become as the these resources become scarce. All the easy stuff has already gone to its place in the sky! The destiny of oil is one point to take into consideration. Think about the problems many people will have when petrol costs become a major burden on their budgets and food prices go up because of the costs of freighting it from near and far. Of course, loss of soil fertility, artificial fertilizers, pesticides and sufficient water does not help!

Another point is that industrialization has caused rapid climate change. There are skeptics who say this is not true. They also believe in continual economy growth and the tooth fairy! Do yourself a favor by doing some homework if you have any doubts about what fossil fuel emissions have done. There are numerous web sites that provide date supplied by dedicated scientists who have witnessed much of the recent devastation to bio and geo diversity. Recently, a US government scientific body has issued two papers urging adoption of measures to ameliorate the change and adapt to the consequences. It is a pity governments takes no notice of these experts!

Doubtless you are aware of the rapid extinction of many species. There is widespread concern about this matter and some attempts are being made to save endangered ones. However, the general public have little appreciation of the scale of this problem and the impact of these extinctions on the operation of the biosphere. The information is there but it does not make headlines. It is a covert problem that is having its irrevocable impact. There will be awareness of many of these problems when the associated costs go up. However, most of them cannot be remedied by us, regardless of the availability of finance. Toxic wastes in land fills are doing irrevocable harm to land and water and to the health of flora and fauna, including us! Natural forces will apply remedial action slowly over time but our systems are unable to emulate that process.

Those three points are the most apparent symptoms of the malaise caused by the growth of Tityas at the whim of the human populace. Many more symptoms do not even make the inner pages yet. The CSIRO have published data on how much the fertility of soil has declined in this country in the past century due to agricultural practices that have concentrated on production bolstered by artificial means rather than sound land management. That is a global problem with more impact in Africa and Asia at this stage.

However, there is a compelling argument that really does indicate what the future holds for Tityas. The construction, operation and maintenance of the vast array of systems that comprise this gigantic organism entail the irreversible flow of energy and materials. Energy invariably ends up as waste heat when used but there is a reliable continuing source, the Sun, even though the major source for running Tityas is the fossil fuels out of the limited crustal store. Materials also invariably end up a waste although usage may be extended by recycling'. However, the sources of materials are limited. Rich ore bodies have evolved over billions of years. The systems of civilization have used a large proportion of that limited natural resource in a short period. They will have to power down as the quality of a variety of these material sources become poorer so their usage declines. Deepwater Horizon is a current example of the problems that will emerge as efforts are made to maintain the operations of Tityas by using sources of declining quality.

There has been argument about the consequences of the usage of energy and materials for decades with the Laws of Thermodynamics often being cited. Some people question the conclusion stated in the previous paragraph. They have the view that materials can always be recycled using some of the continually available energy from the Sun and they provide supporting theoretical arguments based solely on the process involved without consideration of the system needed. They miss the point that there comes a time when the quantity of materials and energy used up in installing and operating the recycling system is more costly than the gain from quality improvement of the recycled materials. The recycling is not worthwhile. Some materials are being recycled with aluminum being the outstanding example. However, most material used in the operation and maintenance of Tityas eventually ends up as waste.

These points should be sufficient to make you realize that the reality of what is happening in the materialistic world has more long-term implications than the current global financial crisis. Intangible money games cause appreciable social disruption but it is the tangible natural forces that determine what happens to Tityas, so, to a large extent, its population. Remember the crucial point that society believes that natural material resources are a free benevolence from nature. There is no accounting for the fact that natural capital, including these resources, will inevitably run out. People and other remaining species will then have to make do on natural income alone. The structure of civilization will not be able to do that. Sydney is addicted to using vast amounts of irreplaceable natural resources every day, whilst it can! It will find it difficult to cope when put on a diet.

Prognosis

It is quite clear that Tityas is into its senescence and its demise is inevitable, probably in the next century. Its population will decline for a number of reasons with lack of sustenance probably heading the list. Gaia has been damaged in a number of ways but it will recover in due course once the ravishing by Tityas is over. The biosphere and its population will adapt to even the climate change precipitated by misuse of some of nature's wealth. Gaia has evolved despite numerous prior disasters and will continue to do so, even if in a slightly different form. Many species of flora and fauna in the terrestrial and marine eco systems will have gone but replacements will slowly evolve as has happened often in the past. Natural cycles driven by insolation make this evolution of Gaia possible. On the other hand, all the systems of Tityas have limited lives.

There is an interesting point here. We know that we cannot be immortal because there is so much evidence to the contrary. We take our mortality into account in ordering our affairs without being pathological about it. We do not know whether our demise will be sudden or following a prolonged illness. This uncertainty about the process and timing, however, does not change the certainty about the outcome. In view of the arguments that have been presented, you may think the situation with regard to Tityas is similar. That is so,,, only in some regards ! The human body ages and then dies as the result of a large number of natural processes governed by natural forces. Medical people have some understanding of this process and can, on occasions, treat symptoms of developing problems. The development and senescence of Tityas is like that in some regards only. The difference is that Tityas consumes irreplaceable natural capital and that is running out. All the systems of Tityas have a limited life so need continual replacement from natural capital, which is not possible. That seems to conflict with what has happened to Gaia over billions of years. The difference is that Gaia has cyclic systems driven by energy from the Sun. This is a sustainable process.

Tityas is now a massive organism that requires copious amounts of the declining natural capital for its operation and maintenance. Cities are parasites springing up globally. The population of humans has grown too rapidly and will wane in the future for a number of reasons, including lack of food and potable water in some regions. Some of the humans learned how to use natural forces to let the Fossil Genie out of its underground bottle to provide the energy to build and operate Tityas. These operations enabled the production of concentrated energy without the perpetrators understanding what the exhaust materials would do. Now the impact of toxic wastes, rapid climate change and ocean acidification have to be addressed. People organized this plundering of natural resources without foresight: there is a limit to the natural capital that Tityas is addicted to using. This unsustainable process cannot continue for much longer. This deleterious practice has been fostered by the flow of the abstraction, money, into the decision making process on one side of the ledger only. Investors charge interest for the use of their money. Divestment of the natural wealth has not been taken into account.

Irreversible rapid climate change, acidification of the oceans and the harm done to the health of all and sundry by toxic wastes are some of the unintended consequences of this exuberant use of natural capital. Extinction of many species has already become one of the continuing consequences. The human species is also on the agenda as their leaders' unknowing make unwise decisions about unsustainable processes. However, the biggest mistake was to generate the addiction to using cheap energy to build up, operate and maintain Tityas when the principle source of that energy, oil, was bound to run out. The situation is now growing rapidly where communities are competing with all the means they can conjure up to get their share of what remains. The price will rise and this will hit many people hard in the hip pocket. But the crucial factor will not be price but the inability to get sufficient supply to meet the irrevocable demand of many of the existing forms of transport. Large sections of the global community are addicted to carmania and flymania! There are already too many cars, trucks, airliners and container vessels and these fleets are still growing although the signs of oil depletion have been around for years for those prepared to look. It is ironic that some government bodies have sounded the alarm for ages but their cries have been ignored by their bosses. Now the cities are set up for disaster as fuels are a major component of their life blood and weak alternatives are only slowly emerging. This disintegration has already commenced in some American cities as their industries disappear.

It is also ironic that governments are making a lot of fuss about reducing greenhouse gas emissions without acknowledging the magnitude of the mistake made in using the fossil fuels to provide the power to drive industrialization without understanding the consequential damage to the environment and its residents. They promote policies that will, at best, slow down the rapid climate change that is already under way. They do not seem to understand that this climate change is irreversible. If they did, they would be adopting policies that have the objective to adapt to the changes, such as drought in much of Australia. There is ridiculous talk about planting forests to reduce emissions while de-forestation is rampant. This destruction is carried out so biofuels can be produced to power those invasive species, cars, trucks, airliners and container vessels. It is also done to provide wood chips to produce junk mail to encourage consumers to do their bit in destroying the life support system! There is almost no recognition of what is happening to the marine eco system or why cancer, diabetes and others are becoming health issues amongst advanced communities. The humans cannot call upon the depleted energy to rectify what their systems have done wrong. The clock cannot be turned back. Energy can only be used once, then it ends up as waste heat.

The growth of the global economy is almost certainly over and the well off in society will have to learn to power down as their financial wealth and many of their skills and tools become impotent. Their wealth used to come from interest on the capital they provided to power the growth, operation and maintenance of Tityas and to supply the needs and wants of the humans. Some of the wealthy now play crazy money games that have a detrimental impact on the real economy while satisfying their greed and ego. Banks have speculated with complex derivatives and other financial packages. Then, when they lose on these risky plays they look for a bail out with taxpayers money. Financialisation has been the major growth segment in many of the advanced economies. The dampening impact that this has had on the devastation of local natural capital has been offset by importation of stuff under credit from the Eastern world. Those materialistic growth days are over in many communities, especially in the Western world. The rich will have to get used to the decline in their wealth but they will get by. Their McMansions will convert from assets to liabilities as cities crumble. They will continue to use their leverage to maintain their relative advantage even as they bemoan their losses. The masses will have to strive to make do with less help from depleting natural capital although natural income will still be available. Many of them, however, have more useful know how than the elite. Long discarded skills will need to be resurrected. A small minority of smart people is leading the way in sustainable communities.

Your path

That, however, is the holistic view of the situation with respect to the host Gaia, the offspring, Tityas and its wide-ranging population. The question naturally arises as to what individuals should do. That is the subject of this essay. Most individuals can have little influence on what happens to Gaia or to Tityas or to society in general. However, their decisions can help family and friends to cope with the changing perspective of the place of people in the operation of Gaia and the coming demise of Tityas. They will need some understanding that will not be commonly available. This will allow them to anticipate many developments when the majority of people will only belatedly respond to costing signs.

In addressing this question, it is recognized that the vast majority of people will continue to believe in the power of money to solve all the emerging problems with the aid of technology. They do not understand that technology only makes use of declining natural capital. Technology enabled the development of Tityas but has little scope to slow down its senescence as the capital becomes scarce. There is quite a challenge in deciding the most worthwhile technology to implement. The greedy rich will continue to pursue their goals without regard for the community at large or the host eco system. Governments will continue for a time to promote economic growth. They are horrified at the thought of stagnation because interest rates on capital needed for production can only be sustained by growth in the economy that they can trumpet as the progress caused by their policies. However, contraction of the economy is bound to occur as natural capital becomes scarce. Investors who demand higher rates of return because of the increased risk as the economy contracts will cause more bankruptcies, so hastening the contraction. So, governments are not to be trusted because growth accelerates the use of the declining natural capital. Money will continue to be a major tool of society but in due course it will become better directed to meeting the needs of the majority and its supporting foundations rather than to bolster the whims of the elite. Its main function will again be to promote the productive process of a sound, real economy as it contracts. Investors will do more due diligence in an endeavor to find businesses that can make a real contribution to the operation and maintenance of Tityas as this will increase the likelihood that they can add to their wealth. That does not mean, however, that the money virus will lose its damaging impact. There will always be clever, greedy people using financial tools for their gain at the expense of others and the environment. Better understanding of what went wrong will help but that will only grow from a very weak foundation. Very few people will have adjusted their mindset to appreciate what is really happening as the temporary organism, Tityas, feeds on what is still available from Gaia.

There is no need, however, for individuals to understand the basis of this stark reality in order to make sound decisions for coping with the difficult times ahead. They just need an appreciation of what constitutes unwise decisions. There are sources on the Internet providing the type on wisdom that will be needed. Discrimination will be required to extract this wisdom from the noise! The Growth and Senescence of Civilization spreadsheet will have the potential to be a powerful, transparent tool to help discerning people decide measures that will ease the powering down in some communities. It will present a credible holistic view useful to even politicians. It will, however, be based on estimates made about a range of factors by experts in the appropriate fields. That will not be a problem as many people have sound views in their particular fields. The major problem is to collect them to provide the holistic perspective that can provide guidance to the public.

Australian perspective

This essay focuses on the situation here in Australia but many of the points made will be applicable in most of the developed communities. The situation will be much grimmer for the majority in the undeveloped and developing countries. Simply, many communities have been more adept at robbing Gaia to establish their Tityas and the materialistic life style of many of the populace. Western countries led the way for centuries but Eastern countries are now taking over that mantle belatedly. Money, of course, has played a major part in what has happened by having a significant impact on decisions, but not on what then happens. Natural forces are in control of that action. The splurging money games are having a deleterious trickle down impact on the real economy, including degrading the superannuation of many of the middle class. The fostered delusion that they can make money is often tainted by the advice offered by their financial advisors. This form of corruption was not so noticeable when the financial capital was growing out of control but became more apparent as fiat money growth slowed down in the past couple of years. It will still be a danger as the saving of money becomes more of a problem for most people. Inflation is likely to make bank savings accounts of dubious value. The acquiring of hard assets should be the objective, using guidance. Homes and real estate in general have unrealistic prices so, in many cases, will become liabilities rather than assets. The days of the energy slaves' are ending. These slaves have already done too much damage to our life support system. Many people will have to really earn their income by using acquired skills and knowledge to do what is clearly useful, rather than being a product of the consumer economy. They will have to value doing rather than having. However, learning how to cope will be a more challenging activity than watching TV or using iPhones, if they are still available! That may seem to be a wild prediction but electronic equipment use a number of materials, including the rare earth minerals, that are now becoming scarce. Yet the electronics industry is going mad on new items such as iPads so many electronic items are being thrown into landfills to generate toxic wastes. That is another item to add to your list of what is happening to natural wealth.

But, that is the situation that exists. Industrialization has changed the eco system and the way people think and live. The materialism is irreversible but some people can learn to adapt while most of them will have to learn more basic skills. How many in our society believe food comes from super markets? Many communities, including Australia, appear to have a material advantage that will influence what happens in the future even though natural forces will still be in control. The rich will nevertheless have an advantage because their fiat money will remain useful even when it has lost some value. The existing systems, however, entail an unavoidable commitment to use natural material capital that cannot conceivably be met! Many facilities, particularly in the cities, are up and running. They require the use of appreciable amounts of the declining natural capital for their maintenance but they already exist and the populace is addicted to using them. Sydney and Melbourne will continue to grow for a while then a multitude of factors will combine to ensure their gradual decline. Money will be no substitute for the natural capital usage necessary to maintain the infrastructure. Many cities globally have basic systems, like sewerage, water supply and public transport, that were established years ago and are in need of maintenance even as the demand on their services increases. Yet, that is a logistics problem put into the too-hard basket as the city leaders' sponsor more growth at the expense of the capability to support existing operations. The food productive regions around both of these cities is being reduced by housing development for the increasing population. The houses many of these families have pined for will rapidly become liabilities as the prices plummet in response to the emergence of a range of supply problems. The rapid growth in size of homes is just like another virus but this one will be cured in the near future as the economy contracts. This typical lose-lose situation seems to be beyond the comprehension capabilities of politicians, probably because they are so conditioned to believe in the power of money and their lust for votes.

Water problems are already having an impact and desalination plants are temporary measures that use one form of natural capital (including those providing electrical energy) to support another form, water supply. It is easy to lose sight of that fact that the hydrological cycle has been doing de-salination for eons without cost! Sunshine has provided the energy without producing harmful wastes. The plant may be judged to be worthwhile during its lifetime but the long-term solution' is reduced water wasting by a smaller population. The cost of water supply is bound to continue to rise as a reflection of that reality and this will be one factor in the de-urbanization that is bound to occur. However, it is unlikely to become a crucial issue here as cost increases need not be explosive to force a sensible response.

How would people feel if they could not rely on water out of a tap and being able to go to a flushing toilet? Billions in other countries already have to face that reality. The irreversible rapid climate change now under way is bound to have an ecological impact that will foster the global emigration fetish that economics is already propelling. Rising sea levels are only one of the predicaments stemming from the changing climate. South sea islanders will become refugees. The boat people here now are just an indication to Australians of what is to come. Americans and many Europeans are already having to cope with the impact of migration on their society. The influence of emissions and toxic products on human health is now gaining some attention as is vulnerable food production, water supply and unsustainable population growth, even here. Even the bees are finding it hard to cope! There are thousands of examples like this of the disruption to biodiversity and geodiversity that the operations of Tityas have caused. Extinction of flora and fauna species has reached epidemic proportions. Polluted rivers are common, especially in heavily populated regions. These issues all involve indirect costing increases that reduce the material standard of living of the masses. They are also contributing to social disruption. Yet the clever people in our society are encouraged by research grants to devise means for producing systems that emulate proven natural processes at an eco cost and with the risk of unintended mutations!

Coping

What then is the prescription for individuals aiming to cope with the powering down. Money will continue to play a central role in the decision-making process, whether good or bad. The Age has a section called "Making Money". That is a myth that will die as stark reality hits hard. Money can only really be earned by using know how, skill and effort to produce some useful good or provide a useful service. The making money myth is promoted by those in the money market, aided and abetted by the profit motive of banksters and business people. Asset inflation such as the price of houses means that those owning a house (even if they have a heavy mortgage) believe they are well off. Asians are buying large homes in Australia in the belief they can grow their wealth that way even though often they are not occupying them. This delusion is so for now but it will not last. Many Americans and Europeans are facing the reality of this delusion now because their economies have led the way of unsustainable growth. They have the greatest fall ahead of them. What is currently happening in Greece and the Baltic states is an indication of what is bound to come, even here to some extent.

You may well wonder how this financial crisis is related to the decline in materialistic natural capital. That is a good question. There is appreciable uncertainty about the amount of interrelationship at this stage. But the influence of irrevocable tangible ecological forces is bound to increase. The Western economies may recover from the current financial chaos or this could be the progression to economic contraction for them. The confusing discussions together with the possible impact of climate change could be having a significant impact on confidence as well as directly on cost. Concerns about the coming impact of slowing oil supply would not have been eased by the Gulf spill and its impact on proposed off-shore exploration. The warnings by authoritative bodies about coming shortages for a wide range of materials as well as oil could well be causing some of the financial down turn. The essential point is that understanding about what is bound to happen in the future reduces the uncertainty about the nature of the inter-relationship.

A wise move is to have a house of modest size and good design features, including means of reducing the dependence on electricity. Location will increase in importance as fuel prices escalate and cars become liabilities. Travel to the work place and access to educational and medical facilities will become higher priority considerations. Fortunately, there are sources of information and advice on the Internet that can help in making sound decisions on these matters. This is important as governments continue to push the economic growth delusion and the media are no help. In fact, TV now leads the field in misinforming the public of the value of goods and services. Business, of course, will continue to foster their profit agenda without regard, in most cases, to the real worth of what they provide. That is becoming harder, particularly in fields providing wants rather than needs. The consequent unemployment will force many people to change what they do but that comes at a social and financial cost. Government vote-catching policies seem to have the objective of making the situation harder for many by fostering the delusion about progress.

There are small moves towards a more sustainable economy. For example, quite a few families have chosen to establish a sounder life style based on doing (like growing most of their food) rather than having. And they value their independence from the consumer society. Some aim to make the home a centre of family activity rather than just a place to sleep and watch TV. Some have opted to aim for an almost self-sustaining homestead in the country. This objective is made easier by the amount of sound advice easily found on the Internet but it does entail appreciable learning and hard work. The irony is that it turns out to be a more satisfying life-style and does not entail expenses for such things as going for work outs'.

Tasmania is a popular venue for those establishing their lifeboat style of living. The irony is that places like that with clear advantages will become the focus for many more seeking to establish a sound economy for their family, so forcing down the advantages. It is not a viable option for many who have established ties to the cities for a variety of reasons, including useful careers. However, there is no reason why sensible people cannot enjoy a good life-style even though the prospects for the vast majority are grim. Sound management of their financial affairs will become more important as it will be harder to make money.

The manipulations by greedy people have resulted in gross distortions in the top end of the money market, especially in recent times. These will undoubtedly continue but affect the well off more than the majority. Their life-time savings could well dissipate into the black hole of inflation. The thousands who suffered from that disease last year will be joined by millions in the years ahead. However, there will still be the objective for most sensible people of having sufficient equity to ensure a pleasant retirement even though the unreasonable belief in money growth will have been squashed. The smart ones will return to the values of a century ago of frugality and saving and absolute dislike of debt. The prudent will have consigned credit' cards to the dustbin. Smart youngsters will aim for careers in the sound sectors such as education, medicine, engineering and policing. They will realize that real wealth is more than dollars. Skill, know how and hard work combined with the support of family and friends in a worthwhile community will become more valuable than dollars. The home will again become the focus of family activity. An efficient home with a good garden will be a real asset so long as it is not too far away from places providing essential goods and services. Many large homes will become liabilities in the decaying suburbs of cities not served by adequate public transport. Doing something useful will again become the main way of working out'. Legs will again be seen to be a more efficient form of transportation than SUVs in many circumstances. The financial sector will have been forced to clean up their game to a certain extent but there will still be the need for due diligence in making decisions about superannuation because the delusion of making money out of thin air will have dissipated. However, the financial predators will still be plying their trade of getting a more than fair share of the filthy lucre' for providing advice'. And government cannot be expected to provide useful guidance! After all, they have been the major sponsor of growth regardless of eco cost. The media may tone down slightly to retain some of their audience but a degree of honesty from them would provide welcome relief, especially for the aged who have had their dreams of a pleasant retirement replaced by nightmares.

Many people will be upset by the crushing of their expectations of an easy life. They will feel they have been robbed of their right to have energy slaves. Networking will have to take second place to actually doing something productive. Social disruption could well become a major problem, especially as most of the young will no longer be able to afford cars, drink and drugs. There are many signs of this violence overseas and there is little doubt that it will spread and grow. On the other hand, there will be a trend back to localization and sense of community by smart people. The value of arts and sport in fostering participatory activities will blossom again, but for its real worth rather than lucrative deals. People power is a powerful, beneficial force that is gaining strength but from a small resurgence. It could well be that the decline in material standard of living will be offset in due course, for some, by an improvement in the quality of their lives even though the global situation will be grim. Doing, rather than having, will become the dictum of the solid nucleus of society. It is ironic that the poor will set a good example for the better off. This change in outlook will be helped by better understanding of the role of our species and that the activities of our civilization are irrevocably destroying the limited natural wealth.

Many knowledgeable pundits are talking in terms of a collapse of society in the near future. These views do not take into account the difference between the behavior of the humans and the operations of their host, Tityas. The people make decisions but natural forces determines what happens to Tityas. Society could well undergo appreciable disruption while the slow senescence of Tityas continues. Even wars would have only a slight impact on this materialistic process. The Icelandic volcanic eruption had a trivial impact on the operation of Tityas but it caused appreciable social chaos amongst travelers. Deepwater Horizon oil disaster will have horrendous local ecological and social consequences but may foster a more realistic attitude globally to the pursuit of economic growth, regardless of the consequences.

The recent global financial crisis would seem to support the collapse view but it is misleading. The GFC did have social consequences by increasing unemployment but it had little real impact on the operation of Tityas. The stimulus packages from governments and the losses on the stock market had little influence on the day-by-day operations even though they caused some worries amongst those with enough money in investments. Unemployment slowed down the rate of usage of natural capital slightly but woke some people up to reality. It is easy, however, to get the current situation out of perspective. The majority of workers are enjoying the range of cheap goods, especially electronics, available. Many are taking advantage in the boom in the value of their homes to pay for overseas holidays. Their belief in the resumption of the growth of their standard of living is being fostered by the politicians and media commentators. Minor irritations like the supposed climate change and what was happening to the Murray-Darling river system have been relegated to the bottom of the list. Tipping the footy, the latest gadget and complaining about the traffic rate the most attention. They take for granted the facilities and presume they will continue to be there until replaced by something grander. Those gigantic organisms, cities continued to consume natural wealth at a horrendous rate unbeknown to their residents. Natural capital was still being used up at about 2.6% per annum with a slight decrease in that rate as the populace cut back slightly on travel and consumption. Turning off lights and cutting back on heating and cooling had a moral and ethical impact only while business as usual remained the dominant paradigm. The powering down trend is likely to speed up as natural capital, including oil, becomes scarcer. There will be more cost inflation for a range of depletion reasons. The asset inflation of houses and the like, however, will give way to more deflation. Society will adapt under the influence of a number of forces, including government adaptation policies and, primarily, pricing. Few people appreciate the role of phosphorus but they will respond to the consequences of the decline in its availability, the increase in food prices. There are many other components of natural capital that are becoming scarce yet the populace at large is unaware of the impact on the operation of civilization. They will simply respond to the price increases as the influence of these physical factors slowly moves up the chain. You need to be prepared to cope with unexpected price increases because the aggregated impact of these factors is beyond the comprehension of most people, including those running businesses. It would be wise to adopt the precautionary principle. Base your decisions on uncertain issues on the safe side. Don't be carried away by the hype on TV.

The coming pressure of declining supply of oil on the love affair with the car and with flying is receiving more attention as the rise in fuel prices is starting to hit hard. But the principle is the same. The vast majority of people will suffer the consequences of the degradation of natural capital by rises in the price of goods and services or the failing supply. They will complain and wonder why because they have been conditioned to believe in the power of money. However, the rich will benefit from the advantage they have gained by earlier making flagrant misuse of natural capital. They do not understand that they have effectively stolen from Gaia! But that has happened. Smart people will respond more rapidly than governments who have their established position of leading from behind. Businesses will respond, as usual, where they see opportunities to make the money that is their lifeblood. Some businesses, however, are already steering a wiser course, to the benefit of their customers as well as the shareholders. The masses have not been taught that natural forces actually control what happens. These forces always have, despite talk about our inventions! They will have to learn that the hard way as the foundations of civilization crumble while the edifice still grows under the influence of money.

Australia has been called the lucky country'. This is a misnomer in some respects as its current position as a wealthy country has been garnered by usurping the land of the indigenous aborigines, degrading the limited amount of fertile soil and employing the energy slaves unthinkingly in emulation of the aging robber barons in Western countries. Much is made of its mineral resources but the depletion of its most valuable resources does not gain the same publicity because of the pricing distortions. Its mineral wealth is a delusion as realization is dependent on the availability of fossil fuels that are running out. Nevertheless, Australians are in a better position than the population of many other countries in coping with the inevitable disintegration of their civilization and the consequential impact on their society. This advantage is likely to attract many, particularly from over-crowded Asia. The temporary influx by the wealthy to take advantage of the housing boom and educational facilities is likely to be supplanted by those seeking to make use of land in the north of the country. Global over-population is the most sensitive issue with a humanitarian mitigation being most unlikely. The disenchantment of many peoples with the past ravishing of their natural resources by Westerners is likely to grow as the available natural capital becomes scarcer. terrorism' is bound to become more rampant as the disadvantaged use emerging technology to give them more power to conduct asymmetrical warfare against their predators. Military/industrial complexes will find it harder to justify their ravishing of the country's economy for a very dubious benefit. They are adapting to such changes as cyber warfare to ensure the maintenance of their major role in the operation of the economy. Global social disruption has been an emerging feature of this century and there is no reason to believe it will tone down as material predicaments increase. The increasing complexity of the operations of society is decreasing its resilience. The return on investment in the organization of society and on the operation of Tityas has peaked and is in rapid decline.

Moreover the virus that is the use by rich of their financial wealth to grow richer will continue to play an important role in the operation of society in most countries. Corruption will continue to exacerbate the emerging financial predicaments of society. Investors use the interest rates they charge for the use of their capital to get more than their fair share of the wealth generated by the skill and know how of labor. The irony is that they increase the interest rate as the perceived risk increases, so increasing the possibility of losing all their investment by default of the borrower. That is becoming highly probable with a number of European countries. This disease is spreading rapidly globally. That wealth generation will become harder as the capacity of industry has to turn more to maintaining the aging Tityas. The cost of the degradation of natural capital is not taken into account by a society that believes for now that the benevolence of nature can be used up without deleterious consequences. A UN study provided an estimate of the cost of the damage done to some elements of the ecosystem by the operations of Tityas. These costs, and associated ones are externalized by society in the stupid belief that this natural capital is free'. They will only learn the hard way how damaging the myth has been. Powering down will not be easy for the middle classes. They will not like the fact that they have been deceived by those they trusted. Culture change as some economies transition to contraction is becoming traumatic. Ironically, social disruption is also an emerging problem in the developing economies such as China, India and Brazil. The divide between the rich and poor is widening globally.

The flow of money has become a major factor in the control of what the systems of civilization do with the available natural capital. Banksters use financial capital to control credit. This is an unsustainable process as economic contraction sets in because scarcity of natural capital feeds up to impact prices and the supply of necessities. Nevertheless, the elite will strive to maintain their decision-making advantage by fair means and foul and to hell with the consequences for others. They are not responsible for the health of the aging Tityas. They can leave that onerous task to the bumbling politicians and their bureaucratic machinations! They will only react when the systems in Wall Street and the City can no longer meet their needs. They have become addicted to the super computers and their artificial intelligence! The masses will continue to go along with this delusion because they are taken in by the materialistic progress they see on TV and are conned into believing it can trickle down to them.

This has been a summary of what is likely to happen as some people try to cope with the senescence of their host, Tityas. It is bound to be a dire future for the masses but many born into fortunate communities can hope to rise to the challenge of living with nature while retaining the best of human culture. The way ahead can be eased by replacing that virus, the making of money, with the satisfaction of making smart decisions about how to live with what nature still has to offer. Real leadership is slowly emerging, courtesy of the Internet, but the best it can do is ameliorate the decline for some people.

Perspective

The intention in this essay was to give concerned people background information on what civilization is doing to its life support system so they can make sound decisions for coping with the difficult times ahead. The perspective presented is so different to the common view that you probably are not entirely convinced. It certainly entails a change in one's mindset and that does not come about without a lot of thinking and understanding of uncommon subjects. I will try and help that process by speculating on what may eventuate here in Australia to the end of this century. I have used the "Growth and Senescence of Civilization" spreadsheet to examine this question so my speculation is not without a credible basis. I expect that with future development by the International Professors Project Senescence of Civilization' group, it will in due course provide a transparent, credible perception of sound measures to adopt to ease the inevitable powering down. Nevertheless, there can well be unpredictable trigger events that will affect future developments profoundly. For example, there could well be a global pandemic that will kill many millions. A very different society would emerge from that chaos but there would still be the vast organism, Tityas, to consume what is left of natural capital as it disintegrates. Tityas is already gigantic and it consumes natural capital at a high rate. The aging of Tityas will have been only slightly influenced by the disruption of society. Deepwater Horizon received appreciable publicity but its impact was localized and small compared to the continuing global impact of rapid climate change, which is also due to the use of technology. Even nuclear war would not stop Tityas but the lack of natural capital will.

It is important in speculating on future developments here in Australia to recognize that there are two processes. They are not entirely independent but it eases understanding to discuss them separately, then comment on the impact of one on the other. The most visible one is commonly called the economy. It is the edifice of the operation of society using the facilities provided by Tityas. It is based on the flow of money. It is what people are used to. It has a major impact on their decisions. The other process is the eco system. Its operation is governed by natural forces. That has been the case during evolution and will continue to be the case, whatever humans decide to do. That operation of natural forces is the foundation of the operation of Gaia and Tityas, so what people can take for granted, until Tityas starts to crumble, as now. Society at large have little awareness of these emerging ecological problems because they are not yet impacting on costs to a noticeable degree. People are still besotted by the power of money and the continual conditioning they are subject to, primarily by TV and now by iPhone and the like, with governments and big business leading us up the garden path! However, authoritative bodies have assembled the evidence of what is happening to the foundations in many cases. There are thousands of scientists in a range of fields who devote their intelligence to gaining understanding of how their niche of nature operates. But their voices have yet to rise above the noise of the dollars! Knowledgeable people have provided sound information and data on the exploitation and extraction of oil for decades. This shows that the easy oil has been used and the problems will grow despite the advances in technology employed. These problems are recognised by the technical people but down played by the bean counters. The reality that the oil industry is in its senescence is now trickling up to the politicians. Deepwater Horizon has helped in that waking up. Climate change is another physical reality that is belatedly emerging from the dollar shadow. Nevertheless, people with insight can see through the financial garble and act sensibly and proactively. This will give them a better chance of not being victims of the social disruption that, even now, is escalating.

Now to look at possible future developments in both the edifice (E) and the foundation (F). The ongoing global financial chaos (GFC) is naturally receiving a lot of attention. Governments, banks, investors and corporations have the most interest in what is happening but the trickle down effect is impacting many on Main Street as their savings, jobs, homes disappear. There is the widespread belief it is a characteristic bust that will be followed by another boom as economic growth resumes. Many commentators present their arguments as to the cause of the recent depression in Western countries and what is likely to happen in the future. They present arguments as to the causative factors and why the Asian giants have avoided this bust. Trading on Wall Street, in The City and other financial centres is seen by some commentators, with good reason, to have contributed profoundly to the chaos, but to the benefit of the small number of elite manipulators. The chaos has not been as significant in Australia as in a number of other countries so the politicians there pursue business as usual whilst blessing the economic decisions they have made! (E)

The reality is that economic growth invariably entails the acceleration of the rate of using natural capital. It is only worthwhile when it is moderate, so improving the standard of living for the masses, but it achieved at the unaccounted cost of depreciation of natural wealth. However, recent decades has seen the insane creation of money far in excess of what is justified in the build of civilization and the operation of society. It is inviting catastrophe when coupled to exuberant misuse of natural capital as in the US and now in several countries, including China. Carmania and flymania are persistent, but unsustainable, diseases. Those new skyscrapers used up a lot of energy and materials for their construction and will continue to do so for operation and maintenance during their limited lifetime. Economic growth is not sustainable because natural capital is limited. Economic theory claims that demand will ensure supply by increasing the price. This theory fails when

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