Variable Velocity Handicapping for Determining Speed Figures

Variable Velocity Handicapping for Determining Speed Figures

Velocity can be used to handicap horse races. It is considered the rate of change in science, so when we talk about velocity in relation to a horse's trip around a race track, we talk about the change in speed. Velocity is, after all, speed and direction. We don't have to worry about direction. In North America all the race horses run counter clockwise, or as a few race track wags put it, "Go to the first corner and turn left."

Velocity is more than just speed, though, because it is also the rate of change or the variableness of speed. Another way to say that is the old saying, "Pace makes the race."

How does that relate to velocity and more importantly how can we use it to identify a situation that will favor one horse over another? The reason that horse racing handicapping is so difficult is because no two races are exactly the same. If a horse prefers a slow gradual gain but also wants to run near the front of a race, it will burn itself out chasing an early speedster. Put the same horse in another race where there is very little early speed, and it will be able to run its own style of race, slowly accelerating to the from and carrying its speed much farther throughout the race.

Think about how changes in speed in a race can affect each runner and you'll start to understand why using velocity may help you to spot a good bet. The average velocity is the distance traveled divided into the time of the event. For instance, 6 furlongs divided into 72 seconds (1:12 race time) equals 12 seconds per furlong. Now perhaps you have two horses in the race, call them A and B. Maybe A can run 6 furlongs in 72 seconds and so can B, but B can do it even if he runs the first two furlongs in 22 seconds while A can only do it if he gets to poke along and run the first two furlongs in 26 seconds.

Next, consider a speed favoring track. We've all seen tracks that were better for front runners. So if horse B is in the lead by a comfortable margin after a fast early quarter, will A be able to overcome the bias to catch B? They both can run the 6 furlongs in 1:12, but what effect will chasing that early speed have on A and what if A tries to hard to stay within striking distance in the early stages and expends so much energy, perhaps running the first 2 furlongs in 23, and has no energy left for the rest of the race?

As you can see, it's not just pace that determines the outcome, but changes in pace that really factor in and benefit one horse while hampering another runner's efforts.

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