A view on the future cost forecasting for LED bulbs

A view on the future cost forecasting for LED bulbs

A brief synopsis of LED bulbs

The LED lamp has been used now for a couple of decades. The application that is most memorable for LED bulbs is the indicator lamp on switches to show when an appliance is turned on. This use of LED bulbs has been widespread and proven and its suitability is because the LED technology is very reliable which results in long life. Additionally LED's benefit from having a very low power consumption so there is very minimal wastage of electricity.

It was the restriction on the LED illumination levels that held back the use of LED's in other applications. Over that last 25 years there has been a recognition of the potential of the LED which has resulted in depth research into the technology. This research has been most beneficial. It is now possible to produce high powered LED's which has created market openings. The LED bulb can now produce light levels similar to small to medium sized incandescent light bulbs. Also the research has resulted in miniaturisation which means the complex circuitry can now be easily fitted into LED bulbs of a sensible size. The final step needed is to improve the design and manufacture processes to reduce the costs to they can be a very viable alternative to other energy saving light bulbs.

Analysing the price of LED bulbs.

When LED bulbs first hit the market in around 2008 as a contender in the energy saving light bulb arena their costs where prohibitively high. Around the year 2007 at the point at which LED bulbs were launched into the energy saving light bulb market their costs were very high. It was between 2007 and 2008 when LED bulbs were initially produced as energy saving light bulbs but at this stage their costs were very high. Typically a LED candle bulb of 3 watts output would cost in excess of 20 . 2 years on it is possible to buy the LED candle bulb of equivalent specification as low as 10 .

LED Bulbs are very good when it comes to electricity consumption. A 3watt LED will produce the same level of light as an old style 25 watt light bulb. This means that LED bulbs will give you approaching a 90 percent saving in your electricity bill. The other factor in favour of the LED light bulb is that it will last 30 times as long. By performing a cost of ownership calculation then you will see that if you buy and LED bulb and run it for its long lifetime this will save you typically 108 , which I am sure you will agree is an outstanding saving. In spite of these huge savings the original purchase price of LED bulbs is high.

Predicting the future costs of LED bulbs

Running an analogy with IT technology then you will see performance increases of a factor of 2 every 18 months. In order to produce a similar lumens output level to a 100watt light bulb you would need a 12watt LED bulb. This factor of 4 performance increase would then take six years to happen if we draw the analogy with what has been seen in the IT world.

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