Analyze Trends And Foresight: Help Your Business Grow

There is no doubt about the fact that the two most essential ingredients for all

future plans and strategies is a careful assessment of the past trends and a keen foresight into the times that lie ahead. However, in these rapidly changing times of increasing complexity, the numbers of variables that have to be kept in mind while devising a strategy are numerous. No longer are strategies based on study of only recent trends from the immediate past and neither is single point forecast accepted as a part of the strategy. The key is to give careful thought to all sorts of unforeseen emergencies, risks, uncertainties and opportunities that may arise in the future.

The intent is to anticipate rather than predict, be prepared rather than react.

Our ability to perceive that which we see all around us all the time is structured and defined by the already existing standards of our culture, industry, location etc. Due to this, we often miss that which is generally considered outside the box. This does not mean that we are incapable of seeing outside the box; all it means is that we are not conditioned or used to seeing that way. However, as is evident by the current trends, the real rewards are waiting for those who are ready to challenge themselves to look outside the box.

This can be achieved by studying, analyzing and then interpreting the industry/market both from inside and outside. A complete and crystal clear map of the future is the first step in enabling action oriented foresight. However since the future is uncertain and full of surprises it is in our best interest to have alternative maps for the future as well.

Experience in understanding the various cultures and the markets that exist within those cultures is essential to conceive those maps for the future. Factoring in the mechanisms of social change alongside is helpful in making decisions for the future with a lot more certainty and trust.

The idea is to articulate provocative but plausible tomorrows that help you make sound proactive decisions today.

However for drawing future paths heavy investment is required in acquiring knowledge of the concepts, tools and methods of the discipline of futures studies.

Several methods such as cross-impact analysis, futures wheels, Delphi, back-casting and models of social change need to be applied to anticipate how consumer needs, values and attitudes are likely to change in the future. A deep study of past trends is required to identify the driving forces of change that are the causal agents of the shifts. The ultimate aim is to understand the direction and speed of change as well as emerging discontinuities using social change models as appropriate.

by: Sumit Srivastava

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