Collective Sing Foreign Investment Banks To Increase China's Gdp Is Expected To - Refractory

Recently, JP Morgan Chase and a number of foreign investment banks and institutions to express its views, sing the Chinese economy

. JP Morgan raised China's GDP growth is expected next year to 9.5%, Goldman Sachs also predicted China's economic growth this year expected to reach 9.4%. Have a number of national experts that deal with the current cautious tone recovery.

Sing: GDP is expected to have increased

Recently, Goldman Sachs chief economist Jim? O'Neill in the Boao Forum for Asia International Capital Summit next year, 11.3% of China's economy is expected to be high double-digit growth, the growth rate will reach 9.4% this year. He predicted that China's domestic demand this year will grow 13.3%, well above the "BRIC" 7.5% of average.

HSBC China's macro-economic report also raised its expected growth rate of China's GDP is expected to close to 10% in the fourth quarter.

JP Morgan expects the economy in the second half and next year GDP growth in China will remain at above trend levels, the quarterly growth in the third quarter to 9.5% quarterly growth in the fourth quarter to 9.1%. View of the low base last year, the annual growth is expected to remain at 8.4% next year from the 9.0% growth forecast raised to 9.5%.

In fact, the market institutions half a year ago in "I saw" the Chinese economy. This year in April, Goldman Sachs, once a substantial increase in GDP growth in China this year, expectations raised to 8.3% from 6% will be next year's economic growth raised to 10.9% from 9%. Comparison of the data shows that six months, Goldman Sachs GDP growth rate in China is expected to increase this year by 3.4%.

Reasons: effective economic stimulus measures To "read more", Jim? O'Neill explained that: China has entered the stage to rely on domestic demand to promote economic, this phase will be more balanced and sustainable, particularly in China in response to the financial crisis with a series of major economic stimulus measures, the contribution of the world economy is higher than the euro zone, also higher than the "BRIC" in other countries.

"Even if external demand and private consumption has not reached the expected level, the central government still has ample room to stimulate growth." JP Morgan senior economist Wang Qian said China's export of strong recovery, the overall rise in private consumption and private investment in the property market substantial growth, are the main factors of economic growth. HSBC economist Qu Hongbin, chief China

that in August new loans 410.4 billion yuan, exceeding market expectations. China's first 8 months 34% of the loan growth, and support GDP growth of 8% this year, more than enough, throw "Chinese GDP growth will be close to 10% in the fourth quarter," high-profile speech because the strong momentum of China's economic recovery. He believes that China's exports in August showed signs of stabilizing, despite imports falling rate slightly higher than in July to expand, but the imports increase, which reflects the domestic demand is still strong.

Experts: caution recovery argument Central University of Finance and the China Banking Research Center Renguo Tian Yong, 16, said the market institutions of collective "I saw a" logical well documented. First, China's economic recovery to the good for all to see, "I saw" is in the first half behind the economic development entity recognition. Second, according to the rhythm of economic rebound, the second half of the Chinese economy will continue to pick up trends, the parties point of view on this issue have reached consensus.

Opposeth and exalteth frequently for the expected growth rate, Guo Tian Yong believes that this round of market institutions that boost the economic effects of government investment, the central investment and that will increase. "Some analysts believe, at least the second half of the central spur economic strength will not diminish, or even will be increased, in this optimistic analysis, over 9% of GDP is expected to become widespread." However, Tian Guo Yong believes that there are indications that in the second half still many variables, "8.5% will not be much problem, 9% is hard to tell."

State Information Centre senior economist Zhang Yongjun also believes that China's current economic recovery should tone cautious. "The July data space to sing, sing on the August data, did not know that." However, the transgenic cotton that there was no evidence that "sing" is the agency to seek a market in the band of arbitrage services, "August data out , almost all believe that, show that China's strong economic recovery momentum. "

by: gaga

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