Harness Racing Handicapping Tips - Post Position Indexes

Harness Racing Handicapping Tips - Post Position Indexes

In order to handicap a harness race correctly, would-be bettors need to understand the importance of post position. For the longer tracks such as the mile tracks and seven eighths mile tracks, post position matters, but not as much as it does on the shorter half mile or five eighths mile tracks. Understanding what disadvantage or advantage a horse is receiving from a change in post position will help the handicapper to know whether the horse will perform better, worse, or about the same, assuming that other factors like form and class level are also considered.

So how do you measure the effect of post position? On the half mile tracks the first or inside posts have the advantage and it can be a very big one. On the five eighths mile tracks, it is often the five and four who have the edge. The way it is quantified is by giving it a number based on probability. That number is called the post position index. The post position index is the percentage of wins above or below the expected probability that horses from that post should win.

For instance, in a ten horse race, if there was no post position bias, then each horse would have an equal chance of winning, or each would win one race out of ten for a 10% chance. Let's say that the horse in the one post wins 15 races out of every hundred races run. That means that its chances of wining are 50% better than they should be so the post position index for post one would be 50%. Obviously, any horse starting from the one post at that track should be considered to have a pretty good chance.

Of course, many other factors must be considered before making a wagering choice, including the actual odds that are being offered on the horses. Post position indexes should be considered and you should always compare the index for the horse's last effort to the index of the post it will be starting from today. Moving from a starting position that had a negative index to one with a positive index will certainly make a difference.

There is one other consideration, however, when talking about post positions, that we must consider and that is the horse and whether it has a preference or is bothered by a particular post. I once owned a trotter who hated to start from the inside post and who would often break stride or balk when approaching the gate on the rail. She was a different horse when she started in the middle or outside posts, however. Horses, just like people, have their own little idiosyncrasies that should be considered as well.

POST COMMENT

Grow Taller 4 Idiots Reviews-helpful Tips And Information List Building Tips - How to Build Your List With Articles How To Choose Tahitian Pearl Necklaces Wisely? Some Basic Tips For Newbies Golf Tips to Choose the Right Golf Club as You Play Golf Swing Tips - Learn the Basics Collecting Recognition Card Debt - 2 Impressive Tips That Can Prevent You From Losing Your Shirt The Downside of Golf Tips Tips on How to Lose Neck Fat Hotel Tips Collection Agency Has Three Tips to a Successful Summer Easy Tips In Cooking Vegetables Without Draining Their Vitamin Contents Cleaning Up the Rugs - A Few Tips Tips To Increase Productivity