How to Win the Lottery Without Paying a cent for the Ticket
How to Win the Lottery Without Paying a cent for the Ticket
What would you do if you won the Lottery?
That is an excellent question. 1 that we've ALL fantasized about a minimum of as soon as and most likely have let our imaginations go wild in at least one conversation with friends or family. I'm not talking about scratch and win lotto tickets here. I'm talking about the large kahuna.
I'm talking about the SUPER MEGA GIGANTIC POWER BALL EXTRAVAGANZA!
You're probably within the stark minority if you haven't a minimum of played that game as soon as. Following all, it is totally justified! You could, no, you should be that 1-in-500,000,000 simply because you have worked tough your entire life and nobody deserves it like you do - so what's an additional dollar, or two, or five?
To make issues more confusing there are two methods you are able to take your jackpot winnings. You are able to take your winnings immediately in one lump payment, or you can take your winnings in 30 equal annual payments spread out over 29 years. The first is called the cash choice, the second the annuity option.
The advertised value of the annuity choice is generally nearly twice the size of the cash option because of the interest that builds up over 29 years. The lottery buys US government bonds to cover the annual annuity payments. Thus the distinction between the money and annuity choices depends on the interest rate.
How much the annuity is actually worth is a question for an economist, not a statistician. What an economist would call the "present value" of the annuity is a lot less than its advertised value, because if you had that a lot in cash and invested it (say in US government bonds like the lottery does so there is low risk), you would get a great deal more back in equal annual payments over 29 years. However, the present value of the annuity is much more than the cash choice, because you pay less in taxes on the annuity, and the interest on the annuity is earned prior to taxes. To keep things simple, we will think about that the present value of the jackpot is the value of the cash choice. That understates the value a bit, but is closer than taking the advertised value of the annuity.
Let's get back to that dream for a second...
The Lottery Dream Fantasy
When we have our lottery fantasies, the conversation frequently revolves around what we would purchase. It may look some thing like this:
How much you win depends on how many other winners you need to split the prize with. When the jackpot is little and also the number of tickets sold is much smaller than 146.1 million, an analysis like the one above wouldn't be far wrong, simply because the opportunity of multiple winners is negligible. When the jackpot is massive and also the number of tickets sold is a sizable fraction of 146.1 million, several winners are likely, and we need a much better analysis.
Just how much you win in the event you win depends on how numerous winners there are. So we need to calculate the probability distribution of the number of winners. (More pedantically, we have to calculate the conditional probability distribution of the number of other winners given that you win. Fortunately we don't need to be concerned about the distinction, simply because both distributions occur to be the same.)
On the surface, that sounds fantastic, right? Then why do so many retirees who could comfortably live off their pension or other retirement savings select to keep on working? They've earned their Lottery ticket, damn it!! Be lazy and go appreciate the precious small time you have left!!
They maintain working simply because they like what they do, or they like what it does for them. They may get paid, they might not - but they're still active and productive members of society. They are not sitting in their gated mansion in a dark room counting their dollars.
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