Jiang Qian: Photovoltaic Business Deposit Market Outlook, The Overall Risks To The Good - Solar,

Event: JA Solar first quarter of 2010, total shipments of 272 megawatts

, compared with the fourth quarter of 2009, an increase of 231 MW of 17.7%. Income of 1.9 billion yuan more than in 2009 1.6 billion in the fourth quarter increased 17.1%. Gross margin reached 22.9%, while the 2009 fourth quarter gross margin is only 20.5%.

LDK LDK2010 first quarter net sales of 347.6 million U.S. dollars, higher than the previous quarter's 304.6 million U.S. dollars and in 2009 over the same period of 283.3 million U.S. dollars; gross profit of 54.5 million U.S. dollars in the previous quarter to 30.2 million U.S. dollars. Gross margin was 15.7%, while the first quarter of 2009, gross margin is only 1.7%. The first quarter of 2009 compared to an operating loss of 3.5 million U.S. dollars, the company operating income for the quarter reached 33 million U.S. dollars.

Comments: The investment adviser Energy Qian Jiang, chief researcher at the industry that so far, most domestic enterprises in the first quarter's performance was not fully released, but according to the distribution over two different segments of the PV industry chain to determine the performance of enterprises in the first quarter, the domestic photovoltaic business since 2009 In the third quarter, the business has been established to the positive trend will further continue and even lasted until the end of quarter. But the second half of 2010, or even long-term time perspective, to extend this trend is not optimistic.

First of all, we all know the reason for this is subsidizing the German market lower. Although in theory, lower investment returns, which means lower cost of Chinese enterprises more competitive, but also means that the German PV market has entered a more mature stage, similar to December 2009 by nearly 1.5GW basic will not reproduce the situation. Which is multiplied with the expansion of domestic production capacity of many enterprises starting point is not consistent.

Second, although the scope of expanding in emerging markets, but in the long run, this part of the market potential is huge, but for now, part of the target market is still in the planning stage, although some national policy has been launched, But whether the coherence are still unknown. In the Czech Republic, for example, investment advisers in the release of "2010-2015 China's solar energy industry and prospects of investment analysis report" shows that while the Czech PV installed capacity in 2009 ranks third in the world, but just before the March 17 Japan, the Czech Republic has adopted a policy of controlling excessive solar energy development.

Again, although the Chinese enterprises in the global PV market share occupied Sichengyishang, but eyeing the market and gone, the latest news is that South Korea's Samsung Group announced an investment in the next 10 years, 21 billion U.S. dollars in renewable energy and other fields to make them more diverse. Solar panels is just one of the most critical component, but before, the Japanese manufacturer's collective expansion is ferocious. The step back in terms of even a crisis, Japan and South Korea electronic giant, the advantages of diversification, but also many Chinese solar companies can not match.

Finally, the hidden dangers of anti-dumping is still worthy of vigilance, although so far, European makers of anti-dumping investigations against China no later, but this does not mean the storm has dissipated, and this is precisely the end markets outside of China PV industry The biggest hidden trouble.

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