Seven factors determine the price of gold futures - Gold futures investment strategy - Jewelry Industry

Seven factors determine the price of gold futures - Gold futures investment strategy - Jewelry Industry

Domestic gold futures market opened for some time, but the losses were about 70% or more, and mostly beginners. Many Investment Who is hurried forward, and some even up to buy gold futures profits, short selling can be profitable do not know. See the gold market volatility, many investors are at a loss. We must understand the impact of the international gold price of several factors.

Determinants As a commodity, gold futures prices is closely related with the seven factors.

Supply and demand affect the price of gold is an important factor in long-term trend. Annual gold production of minerals stable at around 2,500 tons, only to the social stock of 150,000 tons of 1.67%, so the change between supply and demand does not cause short-term gold price volatility.

Between the dollar and gold prices showed a perfect negative correlation. Since 2001, the U.S. dollar into the long Xiongtu equivalent to almost all major currencies are devalued. Among them, the U.S. dollar against the euro by nearly 40%. We expect the U.S. dollar in 2008 will still be running low pressure deficit. Therefore, the weak U.S. dollar in 2008 will form a strong gold price support.

From the last century 70's, the prices have not stopped up the pace into a fast-rising channel. Expected the U.S. economy in 2008 will still be faced with the problem of inflation. Therefore, inflation will push up natural hedging the price of gold.

From oil prices and gold price historic trends point of view, oil prices and gold prices rhythm surprisingly similar: oil up, gold up; oil down, gold down. Oil as an important strategic material by the heavy influence of geopolitics. Meanwhile, China, India and other countries Consumption Strong demand will support the formation of oil prices, oil prices in 2008 will remain high level.

2007 years as Fed to deal with financial markets in the United States sub-debt problem, lowering interest rates three times, the trend of gold prices gives an important influence, in 2008 the U.S. economy demands lower interest rates there. Rate cut cycle would come to once again push up the price of gold.

Varieties of gold as an important investment, promote capital is an essential element of its prices. Fund Positions can be used as an indicator to determine the agency's view the market outlook for gold. Positions from the official announcement of the fund situation, the end of 2007 the fund position shows significantly higher than in early position. It can obviously bullish for gold to judge fund market in 2008.

Furthermore, gold as an important hedging tool, there is strong political sensitivity. Geopolitical events of 2007 short-term gold price of progress as the main spike Catalyst . 2008, the world is still not at peace, the Iranian nuclear issue twists and turns, the Iranian hard-line stance on this issue; the United States, Russia, China Taiwan, and several other key focus areas of political elections, political conflicts continue to occur; Russia, the United States military power, the struggle for power in international affairs or will be upgraded to political events.

In addition to these factors other than investors expected that the psychological impact of gold price volatility an important factor. However, the psychological is not expected to often work alone, often with changes in other factors that enlarge the price volatility of gold futures and the spot to give investors the opportunity to create a lot of spread.

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