Situation Appraisal In The Art Of War
To win a hundred victories in a hundred battles is not the hallmark of skill
. The acme of skill is to subdue the enemy without even fighting.
--The Art of War
One who excels in warfare does not await the deployment of forces. One who excels at eliminating the misfortunes of people manages them before they appear.
Conquering the enemy means being victorious over the formless. The superior fighter does not engage in battle. Thus one who fights and attains victory in front of naked blades is not a good general. One who makes preparations after the battle is not a superior Sage!
---The Six Secret Teachings
You start with an idea--a notion--about something you want to do or something you want to get or someone you want to become. Before you take action or even make an action plan, you should first take a moment and see if it's worth it. To borrow a business term, you need to do a "feasibility study." You need to gather as much quality information as you can and roughly estimate the feasibility of the project.
Or in terms of conflict, this is an initial "sizing up" of the opponent in the environment. For instance, the annoying loudmouth at the bar often has a crew to back him up, so you might want to think twice before telling him that he is an annoying loudmouth.
You must answer "Yes" to 3 questions (or maybe 2 out of 3) to move past this initial stage when considering any action.
1. Are there definite advantages to be gained?
2. Is my defense solid?
3. Is there is a high probability of victory?
1. There are definite advantages to be gained.
Do not move unless there are definite advantages to be gained; do not use troops unless you can succeed; do not fight unless you are in danger.
--The Art of War
Don't allow yourself to get pulled into a conflict that you are not suited, or ready, for due to emotional reasons. One of the most difficult things in life is to control your emotions. To achieve this control, we must be ever vigilant. A ruler must not start a war out of anger; A general must not fight a battle out of resentment. Engage only when it is in the interest of the State; Cease when it is to its detriment.
--The Art of War
2. Your defense is solid
In ancient times, those adept at warfare first made themselves unbeatable and waited for opportunities to defeat the enemy.
--The Art of War
You can think of "defense" as "worst case scenario" thinking. If I pursue this course of action, what is the worst thing that can happen?
Sometimes it's the best course of action to work "bottom-up." You figure out what the worst thing is that can happen and then you continually work to make that worst case scenario slightly better. You keep working at improving your "base rate" until there is a relatively low margin
for "failure."
3. There is a high probability of victory
There are rarely things in life that are one hundred percent certain, but strategy and strategic advantage can dramatically increase the odds of a certain outcome.
Those that the ancients referred to as excelling in warfare conquered those who were easy to conquer. Thus the victories of those that excelled in warfare were not marked by fame for wisdom or courageous achievement. Thus their victories were free from error. One who is free from error directs his measures toward certain victory, conquering those who are already defeated.
--The Art of War
If you choose a course of action where the odds are highly stacked in your favor, your victory will be "free from error".
So, how do you go about determining the feasibility of a proposed course of action? There is one "quick and dirty" method that will pretty much get to the heart of the matter right away.
He who has a thorough knowledge of himself and the enemy is bound to win in all battles. He who knows himself but not the enemy has only a fifty percent chance of winning. He who does not know himself or the enemy is bound to perish in all battles.
--The Art of War
You should also factor in external variables as much as possible.
Know your enemy, know yourself, and your victory will not be threatened. Know the terrain, know the weather, and your victory will be complete.
--The Art of War
You can do a quick appraisal of the situation by examining your strengths and weaknesses vis-avis the competition in that particular context.
After you've done that, you can do a more detailed analysis. A thorough analysis involves the examination of 8 key factors.
1. Moral influence
2. Generalship / Command
3. Climate
4. Terrain
5. Doctrine/ Law
6. Troop Strength
by: Jonathan Semenick
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