Strong demand for solar PV industry to prevent risk factors - solar energy, photovoltaic, securities - Solar Industry

Strong demand for solar PV industry to prevent risk factors - solar energy

, photovoltaic, securities - Solar Industry

Core Tip: Risk Factors o if the debt crisis continues to spread in Europe, European countries could lead to further decline in solar subsidies. o the domestic photovoltaic industry support for policies less than expected.

CASH Financial Global climate change is receiving more attention by States strongly support low-carbon economy. Sustainable use of solar energy as a clean can Energy , Show great potential for the development and application. Current solar photovoltaic industry has developed rapidly, showing both reduced costs and subsidies for healthy posture. Germany led the first half of the second half of reducing demand for photovoltaic concentration of the release of subsidies, but demand in other markets is expected to accelerate growth, medium and long term solar industry will remain strong demand, the PV industry is still optimistic about market prospects. From the sub-sectors, polysilicon serious overcapacity, prices are still down the next room, relatively weak profitability. Cost reductions and strong demand, the middle and lower potential for development of the industry, concerned about the cost of ownership and size advantage manufacturer.

Germany to stimulate demand. Europe is the world's most important PV market, Germany is the top priority, newly installed capacity of solar cells in Germany 2009 up to 3.8GW (million kilowatts), total global installed base of over half of the year, far exceeding market expectations of 3GW, this year conservative estimate of the country's installed capacity will reach 4GW, optimistic about the situation may reach 5GW. The German government will be after July 1 will reduce 15-16% PV subsidies, to stimulate a lot of looting in the previous installation of the project launched to promote the short-term surge in demand. After the second half, with the short-term stimulus faded, demand uncertainty may increase.

Rapid development of emerging markets. Despite the reduction in subsidies in Germany in the second half, will lead the industry faces some uncertainty in demand, but the market is expected to occur outside Germany to speed up growth, which offset slower demand in Germany. United States, Italy, China and Japan are expected to accelerate the development of PV market. The needs of the industry are likely to remain optimistic.

China needs to be developed. 2009 China solar cell production reached 2570MW, accounting for 37% of world production, is the largest country in the world PV production, but China about 95% of PV products in the market depends on the international and domestic market, smaller capacity, only the world's total PV installed capacity of less than 1%, but is expected to accelerate future growth.

Polysilicon prices are low. Polysilicon is the main material for solar cells, its price from the 2008 peak of more than 400 U.S. dollars / kg significant downturn, the recent fluctuations between the dollar remained at 50-60. Domestic manufacturers generally cost 40-45 U.S. dollars / kg, is difficult to obtain high profits, compared to the cost of foreign firms in 30 dollars. Chinese polysilicon serious overcapacity, domestic production capacity of 44,000 tons has been completed, under construction production capacity 68,000 tons, in 2009 only 2 million tons of actual output, the future price of polysilicon still room for downward adjustment.

Advantage of China's PV. With the upper reaches of the cost of substantially reduced the cost of non-silicon solar modules has risen to 60-70%, while China's non-cost advantages of silicon obvious benefit to the domestic photovoltaic industry to speed up the transfer.

Concerned about industry opportunities for middle and lower reaches. As production costs continue to decrease, and the long-term market demand, coupled with technological advances make solar photovoltaic electricity generation costs continue to decline, the industry's long-term growth outlook. To give the industry a long-term buy rating, currently exist in the middle and lower reaches more business opportunities, especially with the size and cost advantages of batteries and components manufacturer, BIPV application manufacturers.

Significantly lower the cost of solar cells

Polysilicon has the technology matured, the characteristics of photoelectric conversion efficiency, the average conversion efficiency of up to 20%. The amorphous silicon thin film technology, the conversion rate was only about 8%. In the next period of time, production of polycrystalline silicon solar cells will remain the main raw material.

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