The Long Term "oil Crisis" May Be Hit Again - Pdh Multiplexer Manufacturer
Given the current gloomy market state, OPEC will realize that "almost impossible" to about 41 U.S
. dollars from the current oil price / barrel level to a close to Saudi Arabia 75 dollars / barrel target. In fact, CGES in the latest "Monthly Oil Report," in the global economy began to recover before the addition based on the demand to cut production to prevent further declines in oil prices, the OPEC can no other way.
"As Saudi Arabia's demand for oil associated gas requires a certain amount, the country's oil production almost reached its limit." OPEC in December last year to reach a new agreement on reducing production, the net cut of 220 barrels / day, plus had a total of 2 million barrel / day cut two resolutions will be subject to quota restriction of 11 countries (excluding Iraq) production target set at 2485 barrels / day. CGES said that OPEC has been implemented in January to its agreed 420 million barrels / day to about 230 cuts planned mb / d, expected in February and March will be the further implementation of the remaining quota cut. But the CGES said: "Full implementation of the cut or make the market supply tightening, but any rebound in prices is likely to be short-lived, and will only trigger further weakness in demand, at least in the global economy is beginning to once again return to the previous so."
CGES estimated that OPEC members will continue to follow in the first half of this year, falling demand for oil production cuts, but the decline in demand is expected to slow down in the second half when the output will rise again. CGES said: "In this case, despite OPEC's oil output is still higher than in December 2008 agreed quota levels, but stocks in decline, average oil prices in 2009 will reach 53 U.S. dollars / barrel." CGES also of non-OPEC oil production this year would be unchanged.
Quarterly terms, CGES expects second-quarter average spot price of Brent spot was 52 U.S. dollars / barrel, while the third and fourth quarter average price of 57 U.S. dollars / barrel, and 58 U.S. dollars / barrel. CGES said OPEC's crude oil sales at lowest level in 5 years. Meanwhile CGES said, as demand continued to decline, global refinery processed over a year earlier fell more than 200 barrels / day, while U.S. crude oil inventories remain at historic highs. CGES concluded: "to reduce crude oil supply have caused prices to stabilize and prevent the oil price decline, but not enough to support their recovery."
In the long term, the International Energy Agency (IEA) Nobuo Tanaka, Director-General, warned last week that if the current low oil prices lead to various companies and oil companies to expand oil production capacity to reduce investment in 2013 could be a new oil supply crisis. Nobuo Tanaka, in London, told the press during an energy conference, said: "Right now, demand is low only because the result of the economic situation." He said, which neglect the investment in production capacity expansion, "in 2010, we may be facing another serious The supply shortage crisis. "
In the latest IEA monthly oil market report, expected in 2009 global oil demand will decline 100 million barrels / day, as oil consumption since 1982, the biggest annual decline. However, Tanaka said, the projected demand will increase again in 2010,2011 and 2012 of 100 million barrels / day. At the same time, he said the current low oil prices will help restart the global economy. He said: "The current global concern is how to revive the global economy, lower oil prices will help this."
Nobuo Tanaka said in a mid-40 dollar / barrel oil prices for the world economy to provide some "breathing space." When asked whether he still think so, his answer is yes. When asked to ensure that investment in oil production capacity expansion, prices should be the appropriate number, he said it was a "moving target." According to the International Energy Agency last year estimated that unconventional resources (such as oil sands) is the marginal cost of 60-80 U.S. dollars / barrel.
Tanaka pointed out that OPEC has led to tightening market supply, he said, hopes to cut oil changes with the pace of demand is understandable. But he urged the oil producing organization March 15 meeting in Vienna to make the production of "flexible decision", adding that further limit the supply will not be conducive to global economic recovery.
by: gaga
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