Why Single Factor Handicapping Is So Hard to Master When Betting Horse Races

It sounds so simple and makes perfect sense when you say it

. Just master speed handicapping and you will know which horse is the fastest and which one is most likely to win. After all, isn't the fastest horse the most likely winner? Well yes, and no. The problem is that no single factor in horse racing can be taken singly and stand on its own.

It is true that there are spot plays that are based on one factor, such as the only early speed in the race, etc. If you try to make a profit with such things, however, you will find that they are easy to spot and therefore, usually bet down to an unprofitable price. The more complicated the system you use, the more likely that you will be the only one or one of few who are using that method. Of course, it also means more work and more things that can go wrong.

Rather than trying to master one single factor, which, by the way is pretty darned tough, it might be better to get good with three or four important points in a race and combine them using your own unique method. Remember, however, that whatever you do will eventually have to be converted to dollars and cents. What I mean by that is that when you finally get so you can rate horses well enough to know each ones' fair chances of winning, you will have to convert that to a minimum odds that will show a profit.

Let's take the example of a method of handicapping that looks at three factors, speed, class, pace. Suppose you determine that when a horse is one of the top three class horses of the race and in the top three for speed in its last race, and has enough pace to be within two lengths of the lead at the half mile call, it wins about 25% of the time. You can convert that into fair odds to make a profit. If it wins one out of four times, then 3-1 odds will be the break even point.

While other people may bet the horse with the fastest pace, or the horse with the most class, or the speed horse of the race, your pick may not necessarily be any of those and yet, by combining factors, you can estimate its chances of winning well enough to put a price on it and make a profit. That is the whole game in a nutshell and why it is so much better to use more than a single factor in horse racing handicapping.

Why Single Factor Handicapping Is So Hard to Master When Betting Horse Races

By: Bill Peterson

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