Dynamic fog forecasting System - CSIR - C-MMACS Technology
Dynamic fog forecasting System - CSIR - C-MMACS Technology
Dynamic fog forecasting System
Recently I visited CSIR Technofest 2010 showcased by Council of Scientific & Industrial Research, New Delhi, at India International Trade Fair in New Delhi, the Capital of India. In this technofest, I came to know that " Dynamic fog forecasting System" which was developed by CSIR Centre for Mathematical Modelling and Computer Simulation, Bangalore-560 037, under the aegis of CSIR, New Delhi, India.
Forecasting fog is not only depends on wind, humidity and temperature but also on a number of processes which are not necessarily synchronous. Formation of fog in the morning also depends on the cloudiness (radiative cooling) of the previous night. There are different types of fog like radiation fog and advection fog. It is often necessary to treat these different cases separately, and the emphasis here is on radiation fog over a metropolitan region, namely Delhi.
Effective fog forecasting that meets user needs in terms of lead, accuracy and resolution of onset, duration and intensity (visibility) still remains difficult. Two major challenges in modelling and forecasting fog are accurate simulation of the meteorological fields and a proper representation of the dynamics of fog. Dynamical (meso-scale) models still suffer from errors in the forecast of precise fields, the genesis of fog is primarily controlled by (quasi-continuous) thresholds in the meteorological fields, which may be more predictable.
A fog forecasting system is based on a combination of dynamical (meso-scale) model (MM5 Version 3) and a prognostic fog model. The meteorological forecasts from the meso-scale model are used in the prognostic model for fog to predict onset, duration and visibility 24 hours in advance with hourly resolution. The validation is carried out against hourly visibility at Indira Gandhi International Airport, Delhi, compiled by the Indian Air Force (IAF) from observations by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), for the period December 2005, January 2006 and December 2006. The evaluation has been carried out in terms of parameters like average errors in onset, duration and visibility, number of false and over warnings as well as success in predicting intense fog events.
The forecasts were also examined in terms of their skill in predicting extreme fog events, false warnings and under warnings, defined as
Extreme Fog Events: Observed visibility 500 meters with duration 2 hours
False warnings: Predicted visibility < 700 meters of duration 2 hrs for observed clearsky
Under warning: Predicted clear sky against observed visibility < 700 meters with duration 2 hours.
The forecasts captured 15 out of 16 intense fog events (visibility 500 meters with duration 2 hours) during the three months. A sensitivity analysis with up to 50% uncertainties in the free and semi-empirical parameters shows the performance to be robust.
The 24-hour model forecasts are very sensitive to the initial conditions.The solution of the initial data is 100 km which does not resolve the local fields adequately. It is expected that the use of high-resolution analysis through inclusion of local data and sophisticated data assimilation will significantly improve the forecasts. Similarly, the use of ensemble forecast methodology with large ensemble can quantify and reduce the uncertainty in the forecasts.
The below links may be useful for more details and information
http://w ww.cmmacs.ernet.in
http://www.csir.res.in
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