Getting the Goods on Props and Futures (part 2)
In the first half of this article I explained what props and futures are
, and looked at
how props should be approached and bet. Now, let's turn to futures.
Futures often appeal to the real die-hard fans of a team; the fans who believe that
in several months from now, their team will come out on top, and who want to be able to
honestly say "see, I told you so I put money on this happening." If you like the Red
Sox, seeing them win the Series was a pretty sweet feeling. If you like the Red Sox and
bet on them in the previous off-season, how much sweeter was it when they won the
Series and you cashed in at 8 to 1 odds?
Futures can be difficult to bet on because the event in question is so far away. A
host of injuries, trades, and other factors will come into play in the meantime. Also, it's
often difficult to commit a significant chunk of one's bankroll to a future bet because it
takes away resources that many bettors will need for other wagers between now and then,
and cannot afford to give up. I always advise playing both props and futures more for
recreation than as a serious investment. If you want to bet on your team to win before the
season starts, go for it, but don't put everything on the team and expect it to pay off the
mortgage.
Bet your futures early. As the season goes on, the odds will shrink on any teams
who have a hope of paying out at the end of the season. If you expect a team to have a
break-out year, especially if that team is hovering under the radar, don't wait for them to
turn heads, because once they do, the price you can get for them will have dropped
dramatically. The Washington Nationals began the season considered a long shot to win
the World Series; now, they are 22-1, roughly the same as the Cubs and the Twins.
Similarly, if a team starts off cold, their line will increase because they appear to
be a bad team. If you think they'll turn it around, consider putting a wage r on them.
People who bet on the Yankees when they were in 4th place and struggling are probably
pretty excited right now.
When it comes to betting futures, shopping for lines is more important than ever.
Depending on a book's action for various teams, the lines will change more than at other
books, and thus, there will be different value depending on where you look. Regional
factors also play into the making of lines. If a book has a particularly large clientele from
a certain area, the lines on the teams from that area may be lower because of all the
people wagering on their favorite home team. I've found that Las Vegas books often have
lower lines on the Giants, A's, Broncos, 49ers, Raiders, etc because of their proximity to
the fans of those teams.
Do your homework before you make a futures bet. If the team you want to wager
on has some tough games coming up and you think they'll get beaten, but you think
they'll still be in a position to contend after the rough stretch, wait until the games are
over. If they lose, the odds will go up and you'll get better value on the team. Likewise, if
your team faces some easy teams in the games ahead, get your bet in now before the odds
shrink!
A final point that is very important: should your team happen to make the finals
of whatever you're wagering on, take a look at ensuring yourself a profit by hedging. If
you bet $100 on the Eagles before last season to win the Super Bowl at 8 to 1 odds, you
could have assured yourself a profit before the big game by betting $300 on the Patriots
to win $200. (I don't know if those were the actual lines, but they illustrate my example.)
Had the Eagles won, you would have won $500 (your $800 Eagles wager minus your
$300 Patriots wager). When the Patriots won, you would have still come out $100 ahead,
from your $200 Patriots win minus your $100 Eagles wager. Any way you look at it,
that's a Super Bowl to celebrate!
For those of us who believe our crystal ball to be a little clearer than everyone
else's, props and futures can often make money and are always a lot of fun. While props
and futures are much trickier to accurately predict than other types of wagers, it is
possible in many cases to do research before wagering, and in the instances that it isn't,
you should realize that these bets are more for entertainment than anything else.
If you are thinking about wagering online visit http://www.gosportsbet.com and they will provide you with a $25 free no-deposit required wager.
Getting the Goods on Props and Futures (part 2)
By: Sam Jones
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