Playing Against the Blinds in Texas Hold'em Part 2
Playing Against the Blinds in Texas Hold'em Part 2
In the first part of Playing Against the Blinds, I discussed aspects of play when you are in the blinds. It is, of course, important to understand what motivates a player in either of the blinds to actively join a pot. When the blinds enter a pot they gain an advantage because there is little information about their hand that is transparent to other players. But, that does not mean you have no information upon which to base your play.
What Information Do You Have?
Clearly, the first thing you know is that playable hands are rare. There are 1326 possible 2 card combinations that can be made from a 52 card deck and, for most players, 70% to 80% of them are unplayable. Premium hands are even rarer. AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AK and AQ come only 4.5% of the time meaning that 96.5% of hands have less value than these big hands. If the flop comes Ah Kh Tc, a highly textured flop indeed, there is a 21:1 against chance that the blind holds any of these premium cards. If the blind bets out on this hand or check-raises, you can be almost certain that the flop hit him and you should fold. If, however, the first action of the blind is to check you can be almost certain the flop missed and he will fold to your bet. In this case, keep a bet on the smallish side, about half the pot, protecting against the check-raise.
If the flop is 963 rainbow and the big blind bets out it is likely that the flop has hit his hand. If the BB merely checked his options pre-flop it is likely he is holding a weak hand and an uncoordinated flop like this may just have hit his hand. If he bets into a multi-way pot, check-raises or re-raises on the flop you can be almost certain that he has made a solid hand, maybe 2 pair or a set. Your correct action, unless you sense weakness, is to fold and wait for a better opportunity.
Counterfeiting the Blind's Advantage
Paying close attention to how a player generally plays when in the blinds and how the BB especially is playing in this hand is crucial to overcoming the lack of information one has on the blinds' hands pre-flop. Is the BB one who defends every blind? Does he only defend when he has a solid pre-flop hand? What is his action on this hand and how does it compare to previous actions. A maniac who defends nearly every blind is, in many ways, easier to play against than a player who is selective in defending his blinds.
When playing against the blinds you must always keep in mind that bets and raises are not created equal. Bets and raises from the blinds mean something quite different than bets and raises made from any other position. Much like bets made from early position put players on stronger hands than bets coming from late position, a bet from the blinds on the flop indicates real strength. While last to act pre-flop, the blinds are first to act post-flop and remain in early position throughout the remaining rounds of betting. Betting out and re-raising a bet indicate strength from the blinds while a check-raise indicates a strong made hand.
Let's say the BB holds 9h3s and there are two limpers in front of him so he checks his options. The flop comes 9d8d3c. In this case the BB holds top and bottom pair but the strength of his hand is only relative. He is beaten by anyone holding 99, 88 or 33. While 99 and 33 are unlikely holdings, they still represent a threat to his 2 pair. Someone holding overcards, especially over-pairs represent a threat: AA, KK, QQ, JJ and TT are only slight dogs to the BB's made 2 pair. Also, a single overcard with a card pairing the board may be inviting enough to a player, especially one in late position, to want to stick around to see the turn. Additionally, there is a flush draw and a straight draw possibility and there are two more cards to come. A bet from the BB in this situation is unlikely to knock out players with these types of hands. If the BB check-raises into a board like this it is likely he holds a made 2 pair.
Paying attention to the blind's action and the implication of pot-odds is likely to keep players with big draws around because they are getting the right price to call. It is generally mathematically correct to call on the turn as well. In no-limit hold'em, the BB has the option of betting to make drawing hands opt to fold by making a bet large enough to price a drawing hand out. If you hold a set, however, you are getting the right price to call and a raise may even cause the BB to fold.
When the Blinds Bet Out First on the Flop
It is likely that with a made hand the blinds will bet out on the flop. This puts you in a difficult spot simply because you cannot really tell why the blind has chosen to bet. Did the blind make a hand here or is he bluffing to steal the pot? Perhaps he is semi-bluffing with a weak draw. Is he giving you a chance to muck your KJ when the board is 442 rainbow. Knowing what the blinds are generally likely to do is of critical importance when playing against them.
I work from a basic idea that bets from the blinds most always mean what they say. When the blinds bet first they expect to win with the hand they now hold. Clearly, the flop is the defining moment in a hand. If the flop is uncoordinated and has no card larger than an 8 and the blind bets he is almost never bluffing. If the flop appears to have hit no one, say Qc7d3h and the blind bets out first it is also likely that the flop hit him in some way and he believes he has the best hand.
A Basic Rule of Thumb and Some Considerations
When playing against the blinds muck your hand if the blind bets out, raises your bet, or check-raises unless you hold a hand that is likely to be best at the moment. Deciding whether or not your hand is best is clearly dependent on how many players there are in a pot, your position, and your best inferences about pre-flop action. Here are some points to consider:
What is your percentage of wins when you see a flop. If you are a strong player you will win 60% to 70% of hands you see a flop with. Is your hand strong enough to continue against a bet from the blinds?
If the blind is betting after checking it means you have only one bet invested in the pot. The least expensive move on your part is to muck and wait for a better opportunity. Poker is a game of patience and making correct decisions.
Do you really want to chase a draw or a set without enough information to continue? The correct choice is to believe the blind's bet and muck.
If you do have a good hand and you simply call the blind's bet it is likely the blind will sit up and take notice. If he re-raises he is announcing strength and you might consider mucking your cards. If he just calls he is almost always going to check on the turn opening up an opportunity to take down the pot on the turn or river.
If you choose to get involved after the blind bets out, you will always be in position relative to the blind allowing you to take the lead in betting. This advantage, when you hold a strong hand, more than compensates for the times you simply muck your hand in response to the blind's bet.
Slow-play a big overpair to the board. If you have KK and the flop comes T72 rainbow and the blind bets out, just call. Your hand may be good here but it is not great when facing a bet from either blind. I will likely muck on the turn if the 3rd king doesn't show up on the turn if the blind continues to bet. There is so much that could beat you here that, unless you make your set, your best move is to muck.
Poker is a game that forces you to make decisions with incomplete information. When a player chooses to get involved in a hand from either of the blinds and the flop is raggedy or misses you entirely, you have even less information about the hand the involved blind is holding. Even if you hit a pair on the flop, the blind could be sitting on a bottom set or bottom 2 pair, making your pair into a looser. So, say you hold Kc6c and the flop comes Kh8d2s and the blind bets out on the flop. Think to yourself I think I'll muck my K6. He could have a KK, KQ, AK, KJ, KT, K9, K8 or K7 in which case I am out kicked or he could be holding 88, 22 or 82 in which case I am beat. Do I really want to continue in this hand or is it time for a big laydown. Then go ahead and opt to muck your K6 because it is the right thing to do.
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