SOLAR PV: Sales Activity holding as Panel Prices stayed over the $3.50 bar

SOLAR PV: Sales Activity holding as Panel Prices stayed over the $3.50 bar

Compared to a year ago, solar PV sales activity is up 71%. This growth signals that the stabilization in panel prices is not dampening demand.

The two year trend of solar photovoltaic price-performance matching Moore's Law looks to be over. Solar PV Panel Prices have hovered around the $3.50 bar for most of the year (see graphic below). Median photovoltaic panel prices averaged $3.52 per Watt last week, for example. While prices are down 24% from a year ago they are actually up 3% over the last quarter.

Some pundits are projecting poly prices will rise in the second half. Personally, I don't believe it will happen. It might have happened if semiconductors had continued to soar out of control, but that is rolling over. Semiconductor demand for poly is also being constrained by long lead times in immersion-scanners. If you can't get these $50M+ tools, you're not going to buy silicon. Plus, there's more poly capacity coming on-line. Historically, going back 30-years or more bets on poly shortages have never panned out for very long. That is because poly plants bring on huge amounts of capacity every time one comes on line. Semiconductor demand for poly is also being constrained by long lead times in immersion-scanners.

VLSI's Solar PV Sales Activity Index measures buyer intent. It gives an early-in-the-sales-funnel perspective on future sales. It is based on a weighting of weekly customer visits, inquiries, and interest at various sales outlets. While only a fraction of these results in final sales, there is information in the trend because inquiry-to-sales ratios tend to be consistent.

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